FX BANK FORECAST · COVERAGE
Aggregated year-end forecasts, scenario shifts, and curated analyst notes from 38 institutional desks. No promotion.
See how the European Central Bank outlook moves the EUR bank consensus across 38 desks
View European Central Bank outlookFrom the original
https://think.ing.com/articles/lagarde-comments-point-to-december-ecb-rate-hike/
The desk views the upcoming ECB decision as a pivotal moment for the euro, particularly in light of lagging signals from the Fed after their prior meeting. Per the full note [source], there is almost complete market pricing of a hold at 2.50%, but Lagarde's comments could either validate or dampen December hike expectations, affecting the euro's trajectory. A noncommittal stance from the ECB, against the backdrop of a hawkish Fed, would likely pressure the single currency, especially with inflation concerns from rising oil prices. The room for a hike in December is almost consensus among economists, with Morgan Stanley highlighting that without significant inflation pressure, there's less urgency for immediate action this week.