US Dollar Credit Supply: Substantial USD supply in 2026
At a Glance
The desk posits that a significant increase in USD credit supply in 2026 could materially impact USD liquidity and positioning. Per the full note from ing-think, corporate issuance reached $112 billion in September, contributing to a year-to-date total that has already surpassed 2025's end-of-year figures. As corporate debt issuance remains robust, with notable activity from the technology and media telecommunications (TMT) sector, the implications for USD demand could shift notably in the coming months.
Key Takeaways
- 01USD credit supply is on track for a substantial increase in 2026, challenging previous issuance levels.
- 02Corporate issuance in September totaled $112 billion, raising the year-to-date total above $1 trillion.
- 03The TMT sector has been pivotal in this surge, contributing $381 billion in YTD issuance.
- 04Net corporate supply has been markedly higher than last year, indicating a shift in USD demand.
Full Analysis
What the desk is arguing
The desk argues that the substantial influx of USD credit supply in 2026 is likely to reshape the USD liquidity landscape significantly. Per the full note from ing-think, September saw a corporate issuance of $112 billion, raising the year-to-date total above $1 trillion, which already eclipses the total of $925 billion for 2025.
This robust issuance is underpinned by strong net supply levels, with a corporate net supply of $69 billion in September alone. This dynamic highlights a marked increase in borrowing, particularly among corporates in the TMT sector, which has issued $381 billion year-to-date—more than double the volume seen in the same period last year.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our target for the USD against a basket of currencies, particularly the EUR/USD, remains at 1.075, aligned within a range from 1.04 to 1.12. Notable firm targets include: - jpmorgan: 1.10 (Mar26) - bofa: 1.04 (Mar26)
This view aligns with jpmorgan's more optimistic take on USD strength, while it diverges from bofa's cautious outlook, indicating a potential volatility in USD positioning as 2026 approaches.
How other firms see it
Firms aligned with an optimistic USD outlook include jpmorgan and citi, while bofa represents a more bearish stance. The contrasting views suggest a split market sentiment regarding the sustainability of USD strength amidst rising credit supply.
Key currency pairs to watch alongside this USD narrative include EUR/USD and USD/JPY, reflecting broader trends influenced by corporate borrowing and credit conditions.
Market Implications
Traders should closely monitor the USD liquidity impact as credit issuance heats up, particularly from the TMT sector. A supportive level for the USD against the EUR to watch is 1.075, with any traders’ positioning reflecting perceptions around upcoming credit volumes.
From the original
Reports Report US Dollar Credit Supply: Substantial USD supply in 2026 Published 15:16 Credit September was another strong month in terms of supply for corporates and financials Timothy Rahill and Marine Leleux Download PDF Executive summary Corporate supply keeps flowing in Sept
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4 itemsUS Dollar Credit Supply: Supply continues at a strong pace
The desk argues that the elevated levels of US dollar credit supply could suggest ongoing liquidity and a supportive environment for USD-denominated assets. Per the full note by Rahill and Leleux, corporate supply hit $110 billion in June, nearly doubling the issuance from the same month last year and bringing the year-to-date total to $685 billion. This robust issuance is significantly ahead of previous years, indicating strong demand and providing confidence for continued issuance as companies prepare for capital expenditures.
US Dollar Credit Supply: July supply stays strong despite summer period
The desk observes that US Dollar corporate credit supply remained unexpectedly robust in July, a trend typically muted during the summer months, signifying sustained demand for USD-denominated assets. Per the full note [source], July saw corporate supply decline to $82.6 billion from $110.7 billion in June but still outperformed the same month in previous years, with year-to-date supply nearly 56% higher than 2022. This scenario is supported by tight spreads and healthy fund inflows, particularly in the Technology, Media, and Telecommunications (TMT) sector. The prevailing strong USD environment, along with stable bank issuance, indicates potential resilience in corporate credit markets amidst broader volatility expectations.