CEE & CCA week ahead: Czech and Polish inflation data
At a Glance
Per the full note from ING Think, the desk's CEE/CCA week-ahead flags Poland's final September CPI print on Wednesday as confirming headline inflation at 4% YoY, with the Czech final release on Tuesday alongside August current-account data for both economies. The operational takeaway for FX is less about the print itself — the flash has already anchored market expectations — and more about the composition, with core easing while regulated prices and fuels do the heavy lifting. Poland's short-term outlook has been flattered by a fresh cut to excise duty and VAT on fuels extended through end-2026, keeping headline CPI in a 3.5–4.0% YoY band into year-end, but ING explicitly warns the energy crisis may force a jump in regulated household prices from the start of 2027.
Key Takeaways
- 01Poland final September CPI on Wednesday should confirm headline at 4.0% YoY with core easing, per ING's Adam Antoniak and David Havrlant.
- 02Fiscal relief — excise duty and VAT cuts on fuels extended to end-2026 — anchors ING's 3.5–4.0% YoY Polish CPI range into year-end.
- 03August Polish current account deficit forecast slightly above €2bn, leaving the 12-month rolling deficit near 1% of GDP.
- 04ING flags regulated household energy prices as a potential upside shock from the beginning of 2027.
- 05Czech final inflation and producer prices on Tuesday are the week's second catalyst, with the current account deficit seen narrowing.
Full Analysis
What the desk is arguing
The core thesis, per the ING note authored by Adam Antoniak and David Havrlant, is that CEE disinflation is intact at the core but masked by administered and fuel-driven components, so the September finals should read as confirmation rather than surprise.
The evidence stack is unambiguous: Polish headline CPI rose to 4.0% YoY while core eased, indicating broad-based inflationary pressure is still absent and price growth remains concentrated in fuels and closely related goods and services. ING also notes the fiscal response — authorities cutting excise duty and VAT on fuels again, this time until end-2026 — which mechanically caps headline CPI in a 3.5–4.0% YoY range through year-end.
The alternative read would be that the repeated fiscal interventions are themselves evidence of unfinished inflation, and that the 2027 regulated-price step-up is being under-priced in the curve. ING does not dismiss that risk — it explicitly flags the energy crisis as the trigger for a potential jump in regulated household prices from the beginning of 2027.
How other firms see it
On the current account, ING's own forecast has the August Polish deficit slightly above €2bn, modestly narrower than August 2025, leaving the 12-month rolling deficit near 1% of GDP. Export and import growth of goods is expected to have moderated back to single digits after two months of double-digit foreign trade expansion — a signal that the external tailwind is fading, not reversing.
Watch Poland's CPI curve and the NBP's reaction function, alongside EUR/PLN positioning into the Wednesday print, and Czech producer prices into the Tuesday release. The wider CEE complex — HUF crosses and the CNB's rate path — will trade the same core-vs-headline tension.
What the calendar says
With no high-impact prints flagged in the next 30 days for these jurisdictions on our end, the practical calendar is the source's own: Czech final inflation and producer prices on Tuesday, Polish final September CPI and August balance-of-payments on Wednesday. Both land before month-end positioning, so a hotter core in either print would be the first real test of the disinflation narrative into Q4.
Market Implications
For PLN, the asymmetry sits with core: a softer core adds conviction to the NBP easing path and pressures EUR/PLN higher, while an upside surprise in core or regulated components unwinds the 2027-dated disinflation trade fast. For CZK, producer prices on Tuesday are the cleaner signal on pipeline pressure, so watch EUR/CZK for reaction to that release rather than the headline CPI confirmation. Positioning into both prints is likely light given the flash has already been published, meaning the second-order reaction could be outsized relative to the surprise.
From the original
Articles CEE & CCA week ahead: Czech and Polish inflation data Published 11:30 Czech Republic Poland Share X LinkedIn E-mail Copy link Share X LinkedIn E-mail Copy link Download Poland and the Czech Republic will publish final inflation figures next week, alongside current accoun
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4 itemsCEE & CCA week ahead: Inflation data from Poland and Czech GDP
The desk anticipates a notable uptick in inflation in Poland, pushing CPI above 4% YoY, which could activate market expectations for interest rate hikes. This expectation aligns with the impending release of CPI figures on Wednesday, where the cessation of the temporary VAT cut on fuels and rising crude oil prices are significant contributors to inflation. Per the full note [source], this shift in the inflation landscape positions Poland's economy well above the National Bank's target range, signifying potential policy adjustments in the near term. Additionally, Czech GDP data set to confirm the second-quarter figures may shed light on consumer behavior, particularly in relation to household consumption amidst supply chain concerns. Both developments will be closely monitored by traders for their implications on currency valuations.
Polish MPC remains patient and keeps policy rates on hold in October
Per the full note from ing-think, the National Bank of Poland kept its reference rate at 3.75% in October, and the desk argues this on-hold stance can persist for several months despite headline inflation rising. The MPC attributed the September uptick primarily to fuel prices while core inflation likely edged lower, and it introduced 'regulatory decisions concerning energy prices' as a new risk to the outlook. Analysts Rafal Benecki and Adam Antoniak frame the statement as broadly neutral with a mildly dovish tint, suggesting any tightening cycle would not arrive until 1Q27 — and would be less aggressive than markets currently price. No high-impact events are scheduled for Poland over the next 30 days, meaning the next real catalyst is Governor Glapinski's press conference and the evolution of regulated energy prices. Our internal coverage bundle contains no tracked currency pair for this commentary, so we have no consensus target or per-firm spread to anchor against.
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