Euro: Testing 1.1300 risk grows against US Dollar – ING
Recent analysis by ING suggests that the Euro is under pressure, with risks mounting towards the 1.1300 mark against the US Dollar. As we observe a strong institutional flow positioned for dollar strength, this aligns closely with our own findings of a bearish sentiment on the Euro. Current market dynamics, characterized by expanding rate differentials and a general USD bullish outlook, underscore why EUR/USD is receiving renewed attention and positioning amidst these shifts.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target sits at 1.1700 (median across 11 firms), with UBS at the upper bound (1.2000) and Citi at the lower (1.1300). ING’s recent positioning on the pair resonates with the lower end of this spectrum, reflecting a cautious stance on Euro strength against the dollar.
How firms align
Citi’s target for March 2026 is set at 1.1300, which corroborates ING's bearish view. Meanwhile, firms like HSBC and Deutsche Bank project higher targets at 1.1700 and 1.1800 respectively, emphasizing a divergence in expectations amongst market participants. Please see our /reports/citi and /reports/hsbc for further insights on their stances.
What the data shows
Recent forecast revisions indicate a notable shift, particularly from USB and Danske Bank, which adjusted their March 2026 targets to 1.2000 and 1.1866, respectively. This active recalibration reflects the evolving consensus and warns that significant volatility is likely ahead. Our recent analysis in /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path highlights the divergence in expectations for EUR/USD as it sits at 1.1401 versus the higher consensus of 1.20.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01EUR/USD risks testing the 1.1300 level as institutional flows favor USD strength.
- 02Focus on the widening rate differentials playing into FX positioning.
- 03Monitor ECB communications and US economic data for catalysts affecting direction.
Market implications
The potential challenge to 1.1300 necessitates vigilance, particularly preceding key US economic reports and ECB meetings. Our consensus number at 1.1700 serves as a benchmark for market sentiment, and breaking through the 1.1300 level could trigger increased selling pressure.
Risks to this view
A reversal of this perspective may occur if economic indicators from the Eurozone outperform expectations or if the Federal Reserve signals a dovish shift in monetary policy. Additionally, geopolitical developments could significantly undermine dollar strength.
Sentiment by currency
USD+EUR-JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: +0.65
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
Euro gains as US Dollar retreats despite firm PCE inflation, German sentiment improves slightly
USD weakness despite sticky PCE suggests market has priced in terminal rate scenario; German sentiment improvement supports EUR upside on better growth narrative.
Euro stabilizes near 13-month lows against the US Dollar after in-line US inflation data
EUR/USD Price Forecasts: Nearing yearly lows at 1.1330 ahead of US Inflation figures
EUR/USD approaching 2024 lows ahead of US CPI print suggests market pricing USD strength on inflation expectations; watch for breakdown below 1.1330 if data exceeds consensus.
Euro: Stabilising above 1.1300 against US Dollar with risk driver – ING
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