Euro: Rallies seen tiring below 1.16 against US Dollar – ING
The Euro has found itself struggling to maintain upward momentum, particularly facing a resistance level just below 1.16 against the US Dollar as highlighted by ING. With the current spot rate at 1.1359, the market sentiment appears to pivot towards a more cautious outlook. This is underscored by a growing consensus among analysts that rallies are likely to tire at these levels, given the mixed economic signals from the Eurozone and the relentless strength of the Dollar. The inability to break above 1.16 may signal broader challenges ahead for the Euro.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target sits at 1.1700 (median across 12 firms), with Deutsche Bank at the upper end (1.2500) and Citi at the lower bound (1.1100). ING's view aligns closely with the broader consensus, suggesting fatigue in Euro rallies around current levels, as seen in their assessment.
How firms align
Firms like Scotiabank and Goldman express a slightly more optimistic stance on the Euro, projecting targets of 1.1734 and 1.1800 through March, respectively. Conversely, firms like Citi advocate for a more bearish positioning with expectations around 1.1300 for the same tenor. For further insights, see our reports on Scotiabank and Citi.
What the data shows
Recent forecast revisions, especially from MUFG and Goldman, indicate upward adjustments in their expectations for the Euro, now solidified to above 1.1800 by March 2026. This is a critical reflection seen in our published research, where we noted the divergence relative to the consensus, available in /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01EUR/USD struggles below key level of 1.16, indicating potential consolidation.
- 02Traders may focus on 1.16 as a resistance point; a break could signal a shift.
- 03Expect volatility around ECB announcements and US economic data releases.
Market implications
Watch the EUR/USD pair closely around the 1.16 mark; sustained pressure here may lead to a reassessment of bullish positions as per our consensus target of 1.1700. Upcoming ECB meetings could provide significant direction.
Risks to this view
A significant miss in US economic data or a hawkish turn from the ECB could invalidate the current bullish view on the Euro, triggering a reevaluation of targets, especially if it breaks below key support levels.
Sentiment by currency
USD+EUR JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: +0.35
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
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