EUR/USD Price Forecast: Edges higher to near 1.1450 but remains capped below 100-day SMA
EUR/USD has shown some resilience, edging closer to 1.1450 but remains hindered by the 100-day SMA. This level will be critical in determining whether the currency pair can maintain its upward momentum or signals a potential reversal. The recent neutral sentiment across key currencies suggests a market in a wait-and-see mode, particularly ahead of upcoming economic data and central bank decisions. As such, traders are advised to monitor technical levels closely.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target stands at 1.1700 (median across 12 firms), with Goldman and MUFG positioned towards the upper bound at 1.1800, while Citi sits at the lower end with a target of 1.1300. [PUBLISHER]'s outlook is in line with the majority, particularly reflecting the view that EUR/USD could break higher if momentum continues.
How firms align
Goldman and MUFG align with an optimistic outlook on the EUR/USD, each projecting 1.1800 for Mar26. Conversely, Citi takes a more bearish stance, advocating for a lower target of 1.1300, which diverges from the prevailing sentiment. For further insights, see our report on /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path-2026-07-19.
What the data shows
Recent forecast revisions from HSBC and Rabobank have moved upwards, with HSBC adjusting its Mar26 target to 1.1700, reflecting increasing confidence among analysts. This ongoing upward adjustment reinforces our consensus targets detailed in earlier publications, such as /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path-2026-07-18.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01EUR/USD currently at 1.1434; watch for a breach of the 100-day SMA.
- 02Traders should be prepared for potential volatility as levels near 1.1450 are tested.
- 03Next week’s ECB decision will shed light on future targets; consensus at 1.17.
- 04Strengthening sentiment among analysts may lead to upward revisions ahead.
Market implications
Upcoming key events, particularly the ECB decision on July 23, will likely be pivotal for the EUR/USD pair. Traders should watch for price action around the 1.1450 level, as a breakout could validate the higher consensus targets of 1.1700 amidst a generally neutral stance within the market.
Risks to this view
A failure to sustain above the 100-day SMA could lead to a bearish retracement, particularly if economic data does not support the EUR's strength. Key risk factors include unexpected shifts in central bank policy or macroeconomic indicators that could sway sentiment against the euro.
Sentiment by currency
USD~EUR~JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: +0.00
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
Euro: Downward bias capped by 1.1390 support against US Dollar – UOB
EUR/USD downtrend remains intact with 1.1390 as near-term floor; break lower would signal fresh weakness in single currency.
EUR/USD Price Forecast: Bears retain control below 200-SMA on H4; break of 1.1400 awaited
Technical breakdown below 1.1400 would confirm weakening EUR/USD structure; watch for range-bound consolidation before directional conviction.
Euro loses momentum as US Dollar recovers from intraday lows
USD recovery from intraday weakness signals renewed bid; EUR/USD momentum loss warrants monitor of technical support levels.