Euro: Upside bias holds above key support against US Dollar – UOB
The Euro maintains an upside bias against the US Dollar, holding firm above critical support levels as noted by UOB. Our analysis suggests that this bullish stance warrants attention, particularly as the consensus targets project a gradual appreciation towards 1.1700. With the market sentiment leaning bearish on the USD, the potential for a breakout at key resistance levels could provide significant momentum for EUR/USD gains in the near term.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target currently sits at 1.1700 (median across 12 firms), with Goldman and MUFG both positioning at the upper end of the range at 1.1800 and 1.2600, respectively, while Citi holds the more conservative view at 1.1300. UOB's analysis bolsters this bullish sentiment, echoing our projected target and aligning with firms anticipating further strength in the Euro.
How firms align
Goldman Sachs and MUFG's forecasts place them firmly in line with the upside bias indicated by UOB, forecasting targets of 1.1800 for Mar26 and 1.1800 for Mar26, respectively. In contrast, Citi's more cautious stance at 1.1300 for Mar26 suggests limited upside potential compared to our consensus view. For further details, see our reports: /research/goldman, /research/mufg, and /research/citi.
What the data shows
Recent revisions from firms like HSBC and Rabobank, which see more bullish targets at 1.1700 and 1.1759 respectively for Mar26, reinforce the notion of sustained Euro strength ahead. These shifts suggest both market dynamics and sentiment are aligning more closely with a stronger EUR/USD outlook. For comprehensive insights on these trends, refer to /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path-2026-07-19.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01EUR/USD aiming for 1.1700; supported by broader market sentiment.
- 02Watch for a break above recent resistance to confirm bullish momentum.
- 03Key resistance levels will be critical for tracking the Euro's next move.
Market implications
In the near term, focus on resistance around 1.1500, which could dictate the next move for EUR/USD given our consensus target of 1.1700. Traders should remain alert for potential volatility around upcoming ECB policy signals.
Risks to this view
A shift in the ECB's monetary policy or a stronger-than-expected US economic data release could invalidate the bullish outlook for the Euro, particularly if USD strength re-emerges and tests support levels.
Sentiment by currency
USD EUR+JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: -0.45
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
Euro: Downward bias capped by 1.1390 support against US Dollar – UOB
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