EUR/USD: Consensus shifts lower on Dollar resilience – Societe Generale
The recent downgrade in EUR/USD forecasts reflects a decisive pivot in sentiment as market participants reassess the structural resilience of the USD. Societe Generale's analysis indicates a growing consensus bearish outlook on the euro amidst ongoing dollar strength. This shift in perspective comes at a crucial time, given the euro's struggle against the dollar's underlying robustness, highlighting potential risks for traders positioned on the long side of EUR/USD.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target currently stands at 1.1700, with a range across firms from 1.1100 to 1.2300. Societe Generale is at the upper bound for the Mar26 target (1.1700), while Danske Bank presents a more bearish view at 1.1200 for the same tenor.
How firms align
While Societe Generale's expectations affirm the bearish shift, other firms like BofA and Investec share a similar outlook for the Mar26 target at 1.1700 and 1.1455 respectively. In contrast, Morgan Stanley shows bullishness with a target of 1.2000 for the same period, indicating a divergence of views among key players in the market.
What the data shows
Recent forecast revisions indicate an overall softening in expectations for the euro, with BofA revising its Mar26 target to 1.1700 and a 2026 Dec target down to 1.1500. This emphasizes a prevailing caution among analysts as outlined in our insights on previous EUR/USD consensus checks for the past weeks, such as /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path-2026-09-28.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01EUR/USD facing downward pressure; current spot at 1.1446.
- 02Market sentiment turning decidedly bearish on the euro amid dollar's strength.
- 03Watch for potential positioning shifts as consensus targets adjust.
- 04Risk of euro underperformance increases if USD momentum persists.
Market implications
Traders should closely monitor the 1.1400 level, as breaking below could trigger further selling pressure on the euro. The upcoming ECB meeting could provide a catalyst for direction, especially considering our consensus target of 1.1700 and current positioning data.
Risks to this view
This bearish view could be invalidated if upcoming economic data or statements from the ECB signal a stronger euro outlook or a shift in monetary policy stance. Any unexpected signs of USD weakness could also prompt a reevaluation of current positions.
Sentiment by currency
USD+EUR JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: +0.65
Firms mentioned
Sources & References
How we cover this story
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Cross-firm research
EUR/USD Consensus Check: Spot at 1.1373 vs 1.17 Median, Week of September 28, 2026
EUR/USD spot sits 2.79% below the 30-firm median Dec-26 target of 1.17, exposing a consensus that remains structurally bullish on the euro.
EUR/USD Consensus Check: Spot at 1.1391, Median Target 1.17 — Week of September 27, 2026
EUR/USD spot sits 2.64% below the 30-firm median Dec-2026 target of 1.17, leaving consensus firmly bullish even as tape lags.
EUR/USD Consensus Check: Spot at 1.1391, Median Target 1.17 — Week of September 26, 2026
EUR/USD spot sits 2.64% below the 30-firm median Dec-26 target of 1.17, leaving consensus firmly bullish even as tape momentum lags.