Weekly forex forecast: EUR/USD, XAU/USD, GBP/USD USD/JPY, Bitcoin and more [Video]
The prevailing sentiment in the FX market remains neutral across major currencies as traders assess macroeconomic signals. The EUR/USD continues to hover around 1.1446, showing a divergence from the consensus of 1.1700 by March 2026, indicating a potential upward pressure in the medium term. Amidst this environment, forecasts from key firms vary, with some seeing higher appreciation targets, notably Morgan Stanley at 1.2000 and RBC at 1.1600 for March, suggesting potential bullish momentum against the current spot level. The relative stability in the USD complicates decisions, emphasizing the relevance of forthcoming data releases and central bank actions.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target is set at 1.1700 (median across various firms), though estimates vary significantly—from Barclays' conservative 1.1700 to Morgan Stanley's optimistic 1.2000. This highlights a robust expectation for the Euro in the coming quarters, a notion not entirely captured by the current spot price of 1.1446.
How firms align
Certain firms advocate for a stronger Euro in alignment with the consensus, including RBC with a March target of 1.1600 and Morgan Stanley at 1.2000. In contrast, Bank of America presents a more cautious perspective, undershooting the median with a target of 1.1700 for March and a bearish 1.1200 by December, as highlighted in our reports.
What the data shows
Recent revisions indicate a slight bullish shift, with Bank of America adjusting its March target to 1.1700. Additionally, insights from /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path-2026-09-28 provide context to the existing gap between the spot and the consensus median, underscoring the potential volatility ahead as markets react to central bank signals.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01Current EUR/USD spot at 1.1446 shows divergence from a consensus of 1.1700.
- 02Focus on economic data and central bank positions; volatility likely ahead.
- 03Key firm forecasts suggest optimism: Morgan Stanley's target at 1.2000 by March.
- 04Risk of downside if Bank of America's cautious stance proves accurate.
Market implications
Traders should keep an eye on the 1.1500 resistance level as a breaking point that could signal further upward movement. Upcoming ECB communications and U.S. economic data releases will be critical to shaping near-term sentiment, particularly as our consensus target provides a bullish framework at 1.1700.
Risks to this view
A shift in central bank policy, particularly from the ECB towards a more dovish stance than anticipated, could invalidate the bullish outlook for the Euro. Additionally, significant adverse economic indicators from the U.S. could strengthen the USD and overshadow EUR gains.
Sentiment by currency
USD~EUR~JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: +0.00
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
EUR/USD: Consensus shifts lower on Dollar resilience – Societe Generale
Analyst consensus downgrade on EUR/USD signals market reassessment of USD structural support; monitor positioning for potential crowded-short unwind risk.
EUR/USD: Inflation-driven stabilisation hopes – ING
Eurozone inflation stabilization narrative supports EUR/USD recovery trajectory; watch for divergence if ECB maintains restrictive policy stance longer than consensus.
EUR/USD Price Forecast: Consolidates above 1.1350 pivotal support as bearish bias persists
Consolidation above 1.1350 with persistent bearish bias suggests USD strength remains intact unless EUR breaks resistance decisively.