EUR/USD due for a correction? USD/JPY to resume downtrend?
Recent commentary surrounding EUR/USD suggests a potential for a short-term correction, while USD/JPY appears set to continue its downward trajectory. Given EUR/USD's current spot at 1.1253, some analysts are beginning to question whether the pair can sustain its recent rally, aligning with the sentiment of the headline. This conversation matters now as it positions traders to anticipate adjustments amid shifting market dynamics and the divergence between spot prices and consensus targets.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target is currently at 1.1600 for December 2026, with predictions ranging from 1.1200 to 1.2000 across various firms. Notably, Rabobank and Nomura stand at the upper end with targets of 1.1759 and 1.1800 respectively, while other firms like TMGM and ABN AMRO position targets much lower, reflecting a notable divergence within the market analysis.
How firms align
Firms such as Rabobank and Nomura take a more bullish stance on EUR/USD, suggesting a near-term target around 1.1700-1.1759. In contrast, TMGM and Mizuho seem less optimistic, with targets placed significantly lower at 1.1447 and 1.1300 respectively. This divergence underscores the varying expectations regarding the euro's resilience against the dollar. See insights from /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path.
What the data shows
Recent forecast revisions from UOB and Mizuho demonstrate a slight retracement in bullish sentiment, with UOB lowering its March target to 1.1536. However, Rabobank's commitment to a higher target of 1.1759 reflects confidence in the euro's potential, suggesting market volatility is expected ahead. For further reading, refer to /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path-2026-10-12.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01EUR/USD current spot at 1.1253, diverging from a consensus target of 1.1600.
- 02Traders should be mindful of potential corrections due to increased volatility.
- 03Upcoming ECB decisions may serve as a catalyst, especially if they diverge from current expectations.
- 04Monitoring USD/JPY trends could signal wider market shifts.
Market implications
To navigate the volatility ahead, focus on the EUR/USD target of 1.1600 for December—any sustained move below 1.1200 might warrant further corrections. Upcoming ECB meetings could provide essential signals on the market's sentiment towards the euro.
Risks to this view
Should economic data suggest a stronger USD trajectory or if market sentiment turns abruptly, this could invalidate the bullish EUR forecasts. Specifically, any unexpected hawkish shift from the Fed or softening in Eurozone growth could lead to significant reversals.
Sentiment by currency
USD~EUR~JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: +0.00
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
Euro: Gradual downside toward key support against US Dollar – UOB
EUR/USD momentum tilting lower with technical breakdown risk; USD strength likely to persist toward support confluence.
EUR/USD Price Forecast: Holds gains above 1.1150, but remains technically bearish under 100-day SMA
EUR/USD below 100-day SMA signals intermediate uptrend remains broken; watch 1.1150 support for continuation of bearish structure.
Morning briefing: EUR/USD eyes 1.1100 support amid persistent US Dollar rally
USD strength testing EUR downside through technical levels; monitor if 1.1100 breaks for deeper structural weakness in EUR positioning.