EUR/USD Price Forecast: Holds gains above 1.1150, but remains technically bearish under 100-day SMA
The EUR/USD pair has managed to hold above the 1.1150 level, although it remains technically bearish as it trades under the 100-day SMA. This situation underscores the ongoing divergence between market positioning and analyst expectations as we near key data releases. The current spot at 1.1253 suggests a market that is still grappling with bearish sentiment despite recent gains, making this a crucial moment for traders watching for confirmation or reversal signals.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target stands at 1.1600 (median across firms), with CIBC offering the highest target at 1.2200 and Mizuho at the lower end with a 1.1300 forecast. The recent market movement maintains a significant deviation from the consensus, particularly as the spot rate remains below both the 100-day SMA and the forthcoming targets.
How firms align
CIBC's revised target for March stands at 1.1866, reflecting a more bullish outlook compared to the bearish stance observed in the projection from TMG's 1.1447. Meanwhile, Rabobank aligns closer to a bear target with projections of 1.1759 in March 2026, indicating skepticism towards sustained upward momentum beyond current levels. For more detailed comparisons, see our internal research on these firms in /reports/cibc and /reports/rabobank.
What the data shows
Recent revisions highlight a pivot in sentiment, with UOB adjusting their March target to 1.1536. Moreover, our published research indicates that the EUR/USD spot has consistently traded below the consensus target, which speaks to a growing divergence in views regarding the currency pair's trajectory, as detailed in /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01EUR/USD is testing critical support at 1.1150, currently at 1.1253.
- 02Technical bearishness persists under the 100-day SMA, despite recent gains.
- 03Market focus shifts to upcoming economic data for directional clarity.
Market implications
Traders should closely monitor the 1.1150 support level as a break below could signal further declines. The forthcoming ECB meeting and economic data could provide the catalyst needed to drive the pair either back towards the consensus target at 1.1600 or deeper into bearish territory.
Risks to this view
A stronger-than-expected U.S. economic report or tightening of Fed policy could invalidate the current bear view for EUR/USD, prompting a move back towards the 100-day SMA or even higher levels.
Sentiment by currency
USD+EUR JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: +0.35
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
EUR/USD due for a correction? USD/JPY to resume downtrend?
Euro: Gradual downside toward key support against US Dollar – UOB
EUR/USD momentum tilting lower with technical breakdown risk; USD strength likely to persist toward support confluence.
Morning briefing: EUR/USD eyes 1.1100 support amid persistent US Dollar rally
USD strength testing EUR downside through technical levels; monitor if 1.1100 breaks for deeper structural weakness in EUR positioning.