Euro: Gradual downside toward key support against US Dollar – UOB
Recent analysis indicates the Euro is facing downward momentum against the US Dollar, with the risk of a technical breakdown increasing as the USD remains strong. The prevailing sentiment among traders appears bearish for the Euro, driven by expectations of persistent USD strength. UOB highlights a gradual decline for the EUR/USD, suggesting a testing of key support levels, which aligns with broader market perspectives reflecting negative sentiment around the Euro.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target is currently at 1.16 (median across firms), with notable divergence observed in the firm-by-firm forecasts. Rabobank and Nomura are on the higher end with targets of 1.1759 and 1.1700 for March 2026, while Mizuho and TMGM project more pessimistic targets around 1.1300 and 1.1447, respectively.
How firms align
Firms like UOB (1.1536 for Mar26) and Mizuho (1.1500 for Mar26) share a cautious view that aligns with the bearish sentiment regarding the Euro's near-term outlook. In contrast, HSBC is more optimistic with its forecast of 1.1700 for the same period. This divergence hints at the complexities in market positioning as sentiment tightens around key support levels for EUR/USD.
What the data shows
Recent forecast revisions have shown a notable adjustment from firms like UOB and Mizuho, reflecting growing concerns about the Euro's resilience. Previous research highlights a consensus gap with spot rates currently significantly below targets, notably in our /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path-2026-10-12 piece, where the gap was identified at over 3.4%.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01EUR/USD faces risk of breaking critical support as USD strengthens.
- 02Market sentiment tilting bearish; watch for technical levels around 1.1200.
- 03Key upcoming data could shift sentiment—any positive Eurozone news may challenge bearish outlook.
Market implications
Focus on the 1.1200 support level for EUR/USD, which, if breached, could lead to further downside. Upcoming economic data from the Eurozone could influence sentiment, so eyes are on those releases along with our consensus target of 1.16.
Risks to this view
An unexpected shift in ECB policy or stronger-than-expected Eurozone economic data could invalidate the bearish view on the Euro, pushing it back towards the consensus target range.
Sentiment by currency
USD+EUR JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: +0.65
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
EUR/USD due for a correction? USD/JPY to resume downtrend?
EUR/USD Price Forecast: Holds gains above 1.1150, but remains technically bearish under 100-day SMA
EUR/USD below 100-day SMA signals intermediate uptrend remains broken; watch 1.1150 support for continuation of bearish structure.
Morning briefing: EUR/USD eyes 1.1100 support amid persistent US Dollar rally
USD strength testing EUR downside through technical levels; monitor if 1.1100 breaks for deeper structural weakness in EUR positioning.