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FX BANK FORECAST · COVERAGE
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Aggregated year-end forecasts, scenario shifts, and curated analyst notes from 38 institutional desks. No promotion.
FX BANK FORECAST · COVERAGE
Aggregated year-end forecasts, scenario shifts, and curated analyst notes from 38 institutional desks. No promotion.
The EUR/USD has seen a modest uptick in Asian trading, driven primarily by the implications of a Democratic clean sweep, which diminishes the dollar's appeal as a safe haven. However, the euro continues to face structural challenges that are likely to limit its gains. The current dynamics suggest that while the shift in political landscape may boost investor sentiment towards the euro, significant headwinds remain, capping its upside potential in the near term.
Our consensus EUR/USD target sits at 1.15 (median across 12 firms), with CIBC at the upper bound (1.1866) and ABN AMRO at the lower (1.1284). FXStreet's view appears closely aligned with our consensus, as they highlight the market's reaction to the Democratic victory but caution against overestimating the euro's strength.
CIBC, with a target of 1.1866 for Mar26, supports the bullish sentiment reflected in FXStreet's report. Meanwhile, Rabobank also forecasts a higher target of 1.1759 for the same period, reinforcing the view of potential upward movement. In contrast, ABN AMRO, which has a more conservative target of 1.1284 for Mar26, presents a counterpoint to the general optimism.
Recent revisions include UBS's bullish stance, raising their Mar26 target to 1.2000, which fits into the upper echelon of current forecasts. For more insights, refer to our report on the ECB decision (/research/ecb-decision-2026-10-29-recap), which discusses the broader context influencing euro movements.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
Market implications
As the USD's safe-haven appeal wanes, keep an eye on the 1.1300 level for EUR/USD. Additionally, upcoming US labor data releases could further influence positioning ahead of the market's response to the latest political developments.
Risks to this view
The outlook for EUR/USD could reverse if inflation data surprises positively for the USD or if there is evidence of strong economic recovery from the US, undermining the current equity-driven sentiment.
Sentiment by currency
USD EUR+JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: -0.35
How we cover this story
Post-midterm USD weakness creating tactical EUR/USD longs, though resilient US data caps gains; watch for Fed policy repricing amid electoral outcome.
Post-midterm USD weakness combined with ECB rate hike expectations underpins EUR/USD rally toward 1.1265 resistance; monitor hold above 1.1240 support.
Midterm election uncertainty and technical double-bottom formation at 1.1104 may support EUR/USD recovery toward 1.1200 resistance, but near-term momentum remains fragile.
EUR/USD intraday momentum above 1.1190 support targets 1.1250 resistance; break higher would signal continuation of near-term euro strength.
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EUR/USD spot sits 2.19% below the 31-firm median Dec-26 target of 1.15, with a 0.135 dispersion range signalling deep disagreement on the path ahead.
EUR/USD spot at 1.1191 sits 2.68% below the 31-firm median Dec-26 target of 1.15, exposing a consensus that remains structurally bullish despite tape underperformance.
EUR/USD trades 2.65% below the 32-firm median Dec-26 target of 1.15, with a 0.135-wide dispersion band that signals deep disagreement on the Fed-ECB policy path.