EUR/USD Price Forecast: Double bottom takes shape as buyers regain control
Recent developments reveal a clear shift in EUR/USD dynamics, as the pair approaches the 1.1200 mark, buoyed by renewed buying interest following the US midterm election uncertainties. This upward momentum follows a double bottom formation around 1.1104, indicating potential for further gains. However, while the technical picture leans bullish, the near-term outlook remains cautious due to prevailing market volatility around these geopolitical events.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target stands at 1.1500 (median across 12 firms), with CIBC at the upper bound (1.2200) and Investec at the lower (1.1455). FXStreet's bullish narrative on a reclaim of 1.1200 aligns with this upward sentiment, suggested by notable firms like Rabobank and RBC who anticipate targets near 1.1700 by March 2026.
How firms align
Rabobank and RBC share a bullish view consistent with the headline, targeting EUR/USD at 1.1759 and 1.1600 for March 2026, respectively. Conversely, Investec’s more conservative target of 1.1455 suggests a more tempered outlook, indicating divergence among strategies. See further insights in /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path-2026-11-04.
What the data shows
Recent revisions indicate a bullish trend with UBS recently lifting their March 2026 target to 1.2000, suggesting confidence in EUR strength. Additionally, the FX desk identified the significance of a consistent higher low formation, illustrated by the latest research outputs like /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path-2026-11-01.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01EUR/USD nearing 1.1200, showing significant bullish momentum.
- 02Technical analysis indicates a double bottom may signal further gains.
- 03Midterm election outcomes could act as a market catalyst.
- 04Short-term volatility remains a risk to sustained recovery.
Market implications
Monitoring the 1.1200 resistance level will be critical in the coming sessions, particularly as global economic data releases are expected to impact this dynamic further. Our consensus target of 1.1500 by December 2026 reflects broader market expectations that may be recalibrated depending on political developments.
Risks to this view
Should the political climate in the US stabilize, any resultant USD strength could swiftly reverse current trends, bringing support levels under scrutiny. Negative surprises in the EU economic data could equally undermine bullish sentiment toward the Euro.
Sentiment by currency
USD EUR+JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: -0.45
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
Euro holds gains as US Dollar weakens following midterm elections
Post-midterm USD weakness creating tactical EUR/USD longs, though resilient US data caps gains; watch for Fed policy repricing amid electoral outcome.
Euro: ECB rate hike bets support gains against US Dollar - Scotiabank
Post-midterm USD weakness combined with ECB rate hike expectations underpins EUR/USD rally toward 1.1265 resistance; monitor hold above 1.1240 support.
EUR/USD edges 'modestly' higher on Democratic clean sweep, Euro remains weighed down
Democratic sweep reduces near-term USD safe-haven demand, though EUR upside remains capped by broader structural headwinds.