Euro: Upside bias toward 1.1250 against US Dollar – UOB
The EUR/USD pair is maintaining upwards momentum after a significant rise earlier in the Asian session, with traders eyeing resistance around 1.1250. Analysts at UOB highlight this as a key level that could signal a continuation of EUR strength, provided the pair holds above 1.1190. This uptick aligns with broader market sentiment favoring the Euro amidst a bearish outlook on the US Dollar, especially as divergence in economic recovery narratives continues to play out.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target sits at 1.1500 (median across firms), with CIBC at the upper bound (1.2200) and Investec at the lower (1.1455). UOB's current view, pointing to potential testing of resistance at 1.1250, is supported by the higher targets set by various firms like RBC and Nomura, anticipating levels over 1.1700 through 2026.
How firms align
RBC and Nomura both position themselves above the current spot, with RBC targeting 1.1600 for March 2026, while Nomura sees even higher potential at 1.1700 for the same tenor. These targets echo UOB's bullish sentiment on the Euro's immediate prospects, contrasting sharply with the more conservative positions taken by others like Investec, whose March target is set at 1.1455.
What the data shows
Recent revisions have shown strong bullish sentiment, particularly with CIBC projecting a high of 1.1866 for March 2026. This aligns with findings from our research, specifically our recent piece /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path highlighting ongoing upward pressure on the Euro amidst mixed signals from the ECB.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01EUR/USD is testing near-term resistance at 1.1250 with strong momentum.
- 02Watch for support around 1.1190 to maintain bullish outlook.
- 03Failure to hold above 1.1190 could signal a reversal towards 1.1100.
- 04Market sentiment is bullish despite mixed ECB signals.
Market implications
Traders should keep a close watch on the 1.1250 level, as a break above could open the way for further gains towards 1.1300 and beyond, aligning with our consensus target of 1.1500. Additionally, upcoming ECB communication may provide further direction for EUR positioning.
Risks to this view
A decline below 1.1190 could invalidate the current bullish view, indicating a loss of momentum and potential for a corrective move toward 1.1100. Economic data or ECB statements suggesting a more dovish outlook could exacerbate this risk.
Sentiment by currency
USD EUR+JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: -0.35
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
Euro holds gains as US Dollar weakens following midterm elections
Post-midterm USD weakness creating tactical EUR/USD longs, though resilient US data caps gains; watch for Fed policy repricing amid electoral outcome.
Euro: ECB rate hike bets support gains against US Dollar - Scotiabank
Post-midterm USD weakness combined with ECB rate hike expectations underpins EUR/USD rally toward 1.1265 resistance; monitor hold above 1.1240 support.
EUR/USD Price Forecast: Double bottom takes shape as buyers regain control
Midterm election uncertainty and technical double-bottom formation at 1.1104 may support EUR/USD recovery toward 1.1200 resistance, but near-term momentum remains fragile.