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FX BANK FORECAST · COVERAGE
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Aggregated year-end forecasts, scenario shifts, and curated analyst notes from 38 institutional desks. No promotion.
FX BANK FORECAST · COVERAGE
Aggregated year-end forecasts, scenario shifts, and curated analyst notes from 38 institutional desks. No promotion.
Recent comments from Scotiabank indicate bullish sentiment towards the Euro (EUR), which is currently trading around 1.1253. The EUR's firm position following softer US Dollar (USD) trends and rising expectations for an ECB rate hike reflect a significant sentiment shift after the US midterms. This optimistic outlook aligns with a growing belief that the ECB will maintain a tighter monetary policy in contrast to potential easing from the Federal Reserve, which is vital for EUR's near-term strength.
Our consensus target for EUR/USD rests at 1.1500 (median across 12 firms), with Commerzbank at the upper range (1.2200) and Investec at the lower (1.1455). Scotiabank's bullish perspective fits well within this consensus as their analysis supports a continued rally in EUR against the USD.
Rabobank and RBC are notably optimistic, with March 2026 targets of 1.1759 and 1.1600, respectively, supporting the bullish sentiment expressed by Scotiabank. Meanwhile, both HSBC and Investec present more conservative views, reflecting their lower targets of 1.1700 and 1.1455 for the same tenor, indicating a slight divergence in expectations about the Euro's momentum against the Dollar.
Recent forecast revisions indicate that UBS has raised their March 2026 target to 1.2000, highlighting an increased bullish outlook. This aligns with several firms showing revision trends towards stronger projections for the Euro, as evidenced in /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path-2026-11-04, where we reflect on recent consensus dynamics around the ECB's policy paths.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
Market implications
Traders should watch for critical resistance at 1.1265, as holding above the 1.1240 level could indicate further bullish momentum. The consensus target of 1.1500 underscores growing support for EUR gains in the near-term, contingent on ECB signals.
Risks to this view
A reversal of this bullish view could occur if the ECB signals a shift towards a more dovish stance, or if US economic data significantly outperforms expectations, prompting re-evaluation of Fed policies. Such developments could quickly diminish EUR's recent gains, pushing it below the 1.1240 support.
Sentiment by currency
USD EUR+JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: -0.35
Firms mentioned
How we cover this story
Post-midterm USD weakness creating tactical EUR/USD longs, though resilient US data caps gains; watch for Fed policy repricing amid electoral outcome.
Midterm election uncertainty and technical double-bottom formation at 1.1104 may support EUR/USD recovery toward 1.1200 resistance, but near-term momentum remains fragile.
Democratic sweep reduces near-term USD safe-haven demand, though EUR upside remains capped by broader structural headwinds.
EUR/USD intraday momentum above 1.1190 support targets 1.1250 resistance; break higher would signal continuation of near-term euro strength.
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EUR/USD spot sits 2.19% below the 31-firm median Dec-26 target of 1.15, with a 0.135 dispersion range signalling deep disagreement on the path ahead.
EUR/USD spot at 1.1191 sits 2.68% below the 31-firm median Dec-26 target of 1.15, exposing a consensus that remains structurally bullish despite tape underperformance.
EUR/USD trades 2.65% below the 32-firm median Dec-26 target of 1.15, with a 0.135-wide dispersion band that signals deep disagreement on the Fed-ECB policy path.