EUR/USD: Expecting move lower
The current outlook for EUR/USD is leaning towards a bearish sentiment as recent technical and fundamental analyses suggest a potential decline. This aligns with the findings in the fxstreet.com piece, indicating a deterioration in euro positioning. Given the prevailing bullish sentiment for the USD, coupled with the EUR's challenges, traders should closely observe critical support levels to gauge the sustainability of this forecast.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target is 1.1583 (median across firms), with Commerzbank at the upper bound (1.2200) and Danskebank at the lower (1.1100). The bearish view signaled by the headline is reflected in our internal targets, suggesting caution as we navigate these tension moments.
How firms align
JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs have exhibited support for a lower EUR/USD stance with targets around 1.1800 and 1.2000, respectively. Notably, our view contrasts with firms like MUFG, who project higher targets for both March and June. You can find further insights in our reports, including insights from /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path-2026-08-04.
What the data shows
Recent forecasts from UOB and BofA demonstrate shifting expectations, with BofA adjusting its March target to 1.1700 and UOB lowering it. These movements signal increasing caution among analysts, reflecting underlying Eurozone concerns highlighted in /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path-2026-08-03.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01Expect EUR/USD to test key support around 1.1400 in the near term.
- 02Bearish sentiment amplifies as USD strengthens; watch for any crucial breakouts below current levels.
- 03Upcoming ECB policy decisions will be critical in shaping EUR sentiment.
- 04Market positioning is increasingly risk-averse towards the Euro.
Market implications
Traders should be vigilant for developments leading up to the ECB meeting scheduled next week, as divergence in monetary policy could amplify volatility. The consensus target of 1.1583 may be pivotal, and a breach of this could set the tone for further downside movement.
Risks to this view
If the Eurozone economy shows unexpected resilience or if the ECB signals a more hawkish stance than anticipated, this could invalidate the current bearish outlook. Additionally, any major geopolitical developments could swiftly alter the EUR's trajectory.
Sentiment by currency
USD+EUR JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: +0.65
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
EUR/USD Price Forecast: Needs to take out 1.1600 decisively for fresh upside
Dollar recovery ahead? EUR/USD stalls, yields rise and JPY intervention dominates [Video]
Rising US yields combined with JPY intervention signals support for USD strength; EUR/USD stall suggests diminished ECB premium in near term.