Morning briefing: EUR/USD can fall back towards 1.1400
EUR/USD is experiencing downward pressure, with a potential move towards 1.1400 support highlighted in recent analyses. The current market sentiment reflects a bullish outlook for the USD and bearish sentiment for the EUR, which aligns with technical indicators suggesting further downside risks. As we approach upcoming ECB policy meetings, traders may adjust their positions in anticipation of potential monetary policy shifts from the European Central Bank.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target currently stands at 1.1550 (median across multiple firms), with Goldman at the upper bound (1.1800) and Stanchart at the lower bound (1.1400). This positions our consensus well below spot, indicating varying expectations among firms about future price action, especially as we head towards critical ECB announcements.
How firms align
Firms like Stanchart and TMGEM are suggesting targets of 1.1400 and 1.1448 respectively, supporting the bearish view of the EUR/USD pair as mentioned in the headline. Conversely, Goldman and Morgan Stanley present more bullish targets of 1.1800 and 1.2000 for March, reflecting a divergent outlook that could affect trading strategies as market conditions evolve.
What the data shows
Recent forecasts from BofA and ING have adjusted their EUR/USD targets downward, suggesting a growing consensus for a weaker EUR in the near term, specifically for the March target to around 1.1700. For further insights on the ECB rate path and implications for EUR/USD, see our related research like /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path-2026-08-03.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01EUR/USD risks a dip to 1.1400, currently at 1.1419.
- 02Traders should consider positioning around pivotal ECB decisions.
- 03Monitor sentiment shifts as ECB meeting dates approach.
- 04Recent forecasts suggest a bearish adjustment from major firms.
Market implications
Watch for price action around the 1.1400 level, as breaking this could lead to further declines. The upcoming ECB policy meeting will be crucial in determining the next directional move for EUR/USD.
Risks to this view
Should the ECB announce a more hawkish stance than anticipated, it could strengthen the EUR, invalidating the current bearish outlook. Additionally, unexpectedly strong economic data from the Eurozone could also reverse sentiment quickly.
Sentiment by currency
USD+EUR JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: +0.60
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
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