EUR/USD lower, USD/JPY higher – Gold and Silver about to break? [Video]
The recent downward shift in EUR/USD and upward move in USD/JPY underscore a resilient dollar amidst broader market fluctuations. This divergence reinforces a bullish sentiment around the greenback as traders assess potential shifts in risk sentiment and liquidity conditions. In particular, the outlook for gold and silver is critical as their price action may reflect underlying market tensions potentially linked to USD movements.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target stands at 1.1684 (median across 12 firms), with Morgan Stanley positioned at the high end (1.2300) and Danske Bank at the low end (1.1100). FXStreet's analysis suggests a bearish perspective on the euro as it contrasts with our more mixed outlook among the firms.
How firms align
Morgan Stanley and RBC's targets of 1.2000 and 1.1600, respectively, align with a more bullish sentiment towards the dollar, contrasting with SocGen's target of 1.1700 which closely matches the consensus but reflects a modestly more optimistic view on the euro. Our internal analysis indicates a significant cluster of forecasts around 1.1700 which could indicate strong resistance.
What the data shows
Recent adjustments by BNP Paribas indicate increased bullishness on the euro, with forecasts now at 1.1600 for March 2026 and up to 1.2100 by December 2026. This aligns with insights suggested in our report /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path, highlighting evolving market sentiment and discrepancies in forecasts as markets navigate geopolitical uncertainties.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01EUR/USD is currently trading at 1.1446, indicating bearish pressure.
- 02Traders should monitor upcoming economic data for potential impacts on dollar strength.
- 03Gold and silver may signal broader risk-off sentiment if they breach current technical levels.
- 04Consensus EUR targets show a notable range from 1.1100 to 1.2300 across major firms.
Market implications
In the coming week, watch for key economic data releases that could impact forex positioning, particularly around the 1.1700 consensus level. Any weakness in the euro could reinvigorate dollar demand ahead of major central bank meetings.
Risks to this view
A significant deviation in upcoming U.S. economic data or a shift in Federal Reserve policy could disrupt current price trends and reverse dollar strength. Moreover, unexpected European economic recovery signals may bolster the euro, challenging lower EUR/USD levels.
Sentiment by currency
USD+EUR JPY GBP~Composite USD score: +0.60
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
The Dollar thrived with EUR/USD closing below the 1.1400 handle
EUR/USD breakdown below 1.1400 signals continued Dollar strength; monitor for support hold at 1.1350 as next key technical level.
Euro: Downside risks start to shrink against US Dollar – ING
Retreat in EUR/USD downside risks suggests technical floor forming; watch for mean-reversion bids into 1.08–1.09 support zone.
EUR/USD tests two-month low: What's driving the decline?
EUR/USD breakdown below recent range suggests dollar strength persisting; monitor if 1.08 support holds or further USD allocation warranted.