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EUR/USD traded at 1.1392 on September 23, 2026 — well below the 30-firm median December 2026 target of 1.1684, a gap of roughly 2.50%, as tracked in the full EUR/USD bank forecast table. The spread between the most bullish and most bearish published targets stands at 0.14 — unusually wide for a G10 major at this stage of the forecast horizon.
Key Numbers
- Live spot (Sep 23, 2026): 1.1392
- Cross-firm consensus median (Dec-26): 1.1684
- Dispersion (max − min, 30 firms): 0.14
- Gap, spot vs consensus: −2.50%
- Most bullish: Nordea at 1.24
- Most bearish: Citi at 1.10
Where the 30-Firm Panel Stands
| Firm | Dec-2026 target | Stance |
|---|---|---|
| Goldman Sachs | 1.12 | bullish |
| J.P. Morgan | 1.13 | bullish |
| Crédit Agricole | 1.13 | neutral |
| Société Générale | 1.14 | bullish |
| BNP Paribas | 1.15 | bullish |
| Mizuho | 1.15 | bearish |
| Standard Chartered | 1.16 | bullish |
| Scotiabank | 1.17 | neutral |
| Deutsche Bank | 1.1668 | bullish |
| UOB | 1.18 | neutral |
| UBS | 1.18 | bullish |
| Rabobank | 1.18 | neutral |
| MUFG | 1.18 | bullish |
| Morgan Stanley | 1.215 | bullish |
Why Does EUR/USD Trade Below Consensus?
Three macro frameworks dominate the published rationale, and none of them fully resolves the spot-consensus gap.
Front-end rate spreads. Deutsche Bank anchors its 1.1668 target on the view that the 2-year EUR/USD rate differential has compressed materially since early 2026 as the Fed moved to ease and the ECB held longer than the market priced. DB characterises its stance as bullish on EUR/USD, expecting the spread to narrow further by year-end and pull spot toward its target. The current gap between spot and the DB target is roughly 2.4 figures — modest relative to the panel-wide dispersion but meaningful for a desk that describes the pair as broadly range-bound.
ECB terminal-rate path. BNP Paribas sits at 1.15 with a bullish stance, having cut its target sharply from 1.21 earlier in the year. The revision reflects a reassessment of how quickly the ECB will reach its terminal rate: BNP now sees the Governing Council moving more cautiously than previously assumed, limiting the EUR carry advantage that underpinned the earlier, more aggressive call. At 1.15, BNP is one of the lower targets among the bullish camp — a reminder that stance labels and target levels do not always move in lockstep.
Terminal-rate dispersion across the panel. Morgan Stanley sits at 1.215 — among the highest targets of the 14 most recently updated desks — and frames its bullish view around the argument that markets are underpricing the ECB's willingness to hold rates at a restrictive level relative to the Fed's easing trajectory. MS sees the terminal-rate gap between Frankfurt and Washington widening modestly into year-end, which it translates into EUR/USD upside. That call requires both a continued Fed pivot and ECB steadiness — two conditions that have repeatedly been repriced over the past 18 months.
Which Desks Are the Outliers, and What Would Move Them?
The 0.14 figure-wide dispersion between Nordea's 1.24 ceiling and Citi's 1.10 floor is the operative tension in this consensus snapshot. Nordea's target implies roughly 8.8% upside from current spot — a call that would require a significant acceleration in dollar weakness, likely driven by a sharper-than-expected Fed easing cycle or a deterioration in US fiscal credibility. Citi's 1.10, by contrast, sits 2.6% below current spot and implies that EUR/USD has already overshot fair value on most short-run metrics.
Goldman Sachs at 1.12 and J.P. Morgan at 1.13 occupy the bearish end of the named panel despite both carrying a bullish stance label — meaning both desks expect EUR/USD to rise from their reference spots but see limited upside relative to where the pair has traded. Mizuho is the lone desk in the table carrying a bearish stance with a 1.15 target, implying it sees EUR/USD declining from current levels.
For consensus to converge to spot at 1.1392, one of two things would need to happen: either spot rallies roughly 260 pips to close the gap, or the median target migrates lower — most plausibly through a cluster of downward revisions from desks currently sitting in the 1.17–1.18 range. A repricing of ECB rate expectations toward earlier or deeper cuts, a reversal in the Fed's easing cadence, or a risk-off episode that drives dollar demand would each apply downward pressure on the median. None of those catalysts is absent from the macro landscape, but none has yet been sufficient to shift the panel's centre of gravity.
Société Générale at 1.14 with a bullish stance and Standard Chartered at 1.16 represent the middle of the distribution — desks that see modest EUR/USD appreciation but are not positioned for the kind of dollar unwind that the top-target firms require.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the current EUR/USD consensus target for December 2026?
The 30-firm median December 2026 target is 1.1684, based on the September 23, 2026 snapshot.
How far is spot from consensus?
Spot at 1.1392 sits 2.50% below the median target — a gap of roughly 292 pips at current levels.
Which firm has the highest EUR/USD target?
Nordea carries the highest target in the 30-firm panel at 1.24, implying approximately 8.8% upside from the September 23 spot.
Which firm has the lowest EUR/USD target?
Citi holds the lowest target at 1.10, roughly 2.6% below current spot, making it the most bearish desk in the consensus.
→ See the full Morgan Stanley FX outlook for the complete EUR/USD rationale and updated targets.
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