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EUR/USD traded at 1.1468 on September 21, 2026, running 1.85% below the cross-firm median Dec-26 target of 1.1684 — a gap that reflects persistent disagreement over terminal-rate paths on both sides of the Atlantic; the full EUR/USD bank forecast table shows 30 desks still skewed bullish on the pair into year-end.
Key Numbers
- Live spot (Sep 21, 2026): 1.1468
- Cross-firm consensus median (Dec-26): 1.1684
- Dispersion (max − min, 30 firms): 0.14
- Gap, spot vs consensus: −1.85% (spot well below)
- Most bullish: Nordea at 1.24
- Most bearish: Citi at 1.10
Where Does Each Desk Stand?
| Firm | Dec-2026 target | Stance |
|---|---|---|
| Goldman Sachs | 1.12 | bullish |
| J.P. Morgan | 1.13 | bullish |
| Crédit Agricole | 1.13 | neutral |
| Société Générale | 1.14 | bullish |
| BNP Paribas | 1.15 | bullish |
| Mizuho | 1.15 | bearish |
| Standard Chartered | 1.16 | bullish |
| Scotiabank | 1.17 | neutral |
| ING | 1.17 | neutral |
| UBS | 1.18 | bullish |
| UOB | 1.18 | neutral |
| Rabobank | 1.18 | neutral |
| MUFG | 1.18 | bullish |
| Morgan Stanley | 1.215 | bullish |
Why Does Spot Trade Below a Bullish Consensus?
Three macro drivers account for most of the wedge between the 1.1468 handle and the 1.1684 median.
Front-end rate spreads. The 2-year EUR-USD swap spread has compressed meaningfully since mid-summer but has not yet fully repriced the Fed's slower-than-expected cutting pace. As long as the Fed funds rate holds above the ECB's deposit facility rate on a real basis, the carry arithmetic continues to favour the dollar at the margin, keeping spot anchored below where consensus models — which embed a more complete Fed easing cycle — would otherwise place it.
ECB path uncertainty. Mizuho sits at 1.15 with a bearish stance, anchoring the lower end of the published table. The desk's view rests on the ECB having resumed hikes in June and being expected to move again in September; Mizuho argues that a tighter ECB, paradoxically, compresses the eurozone growth outlook enough to limit EUR upside. That is a minority read — most desks treat additional ECB tightening as EUR-supportive — but it illustrates how the same policy input can generate opposite conclusions depending on the growth-versus-carry framework applied.
Terminal-rate dispersion. The 0.14 spread between Nordea's 1.24 ceiling and Citi's 1.10 floor is wide by historical standards for a three-month horizon. Morgan Stanley at 1.215 and Goldman Sachs at 1.12 — both carrying bullish stances — differ by roughly 950 pips on the same directional call. The divergence is almost entirely a function of where each desk places the Fed terminal rate and how quickly they expect balance-sheet runoff to slow. Until that dispersion compresses, spot has limited reason to chase any single target.
Which Desks Have Moved the Most, and What Does That Signal?
BNP Paribas is the sharpest downward revision in the current snapshot: the desk cut its year-end target from 1.21 to 1.15, a 600-pip reduction, while retaining a bullish label — meaning the desk still expects EUR/USD to rise from wherever spot was when the note was published, but the conviction on the magnitude has collapsed. That kind of target compression without a stance flip is a classic sign of a desk that has been caught leaning too aggressively into a dollar-weakness thesis and is trimming rather than capitulating.
Scotiabank moved in the opposite direction, raising its target from 1.12 to 1.17, a 500-pip upgrade accompanied by a neutral stance. The revision reflects the desk's reassessment of Canadian and US cross-border trade dynamics feeding into the broader dollar index, with EUR/USD lifted as a residual.
The net effect of these revisions is a consensus that has drifted modestly lower over the past month but remains structurally above spot — reinforcing the bullish implied bias across the 30-firm panel.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the current EUR/USD consensus target for December 2026?
The median Dec-26 target across 30 institutional desks is 1.1684, based on the September 21, 2026 snapshot.
How far is spot from consensus?
Spot at 1.1468 sits 1.85% below the median target, a gap the data characterises as spot running well below consensus.
Which firm has the highest EUR/USD target and which the lowest?
Nordea carries the most bullish target at 1.24; Citi anchors the bearish extreme at 1.10 — a dispersion of 0.14 across the full 30-firm panel.
What would force consensus to converge toward spot rather than the reverse?
Three conditions would do it: a Fed that pauses or reverses its easing guidance more aggressively than markets price, an ECB that signals it is done hiking and pivots to cuts faster than the consensus ECB path implies, or a deterioration in eurozone activity data sufficient to undercut the growth-differential argument that underpins most bullish EUR/USD calls. Any one of these, sustained over four to six weeks, would likely trigger a wave of target cuts that pulls the median toward the 1.14–1.15 range where the more cautious desks already sit.
→ See the full Morgan Stanley FX outlook for the desk's detailed rate-path assumptions behind its 1.215 Dec-26 target.
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