The Dollar thrived with EUR/USD closing below the 1.1400 handle
The Dollar gained momentum as EUR/USD closed below the crucial 1.1400 level, suggesting persistent bearishness for the Euro. This technical breach reinforces the ongoing strength of the Dollar, as traders scrutinize for potential support around 1.1350 in anticipation of further moves. Current market dynamics warrant attention to USD strength as sentiment trends bullish amid a supportive labor backdrop and potential Fed policy signals.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target sits at 1.1684 (median across 11 firms), with Morgan Stanley at the high end of the spectrum targeting 1.2000 for March 2026, while Standard Chartered holds the low at 1.1400. In contrast, the recent closing below 1.1400 aligns with a more bearish outlook, as highlighted by this headline.
How firms align
Notably, firms like RBC and SocGen maintain a bullish stance on EUR/USD, with targets of 1.1700 and 1.1700, respectively. In contrast, Stanchart’s latest target at 1.1400 resonates with the recent price action suggesting a downward bias. This divergence may invite a reassessment of market positioning as we move forward.
What the data shows
In recent analyses, BNP Paribas has adjusted its forecast to 1.1600 for March 2026, indicating a perception of bearishness relative to prior estimates. This reflects evolving consensus about the Eurozone's economic outlook, as noted in our research at /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path-2026-09-23.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01EUR/USD closed below 1.1400, indicating continued Dollar strength.
- 02Next support level to watch is 1.1350; a break could escalate bearish sentiment.
- 03Monitor ECB statements for catalysts affecting EUR, especially around inflation targets.
- 04Technical indicators now provide bearish signals, warranting caution for Euro long positions.
Market implications
Traders should closely watch the 1.1350 support level for signs of resilience or a breakdown. The upcoming ECB meeting might also offer fresh insights into the Euro's trajectory, in light of our consensus target of 1.1684.
Risks to this view
Should there be unexpectedly hawkish signals from the ECB, it could reverse the current bearish sentiment on the Euro, potentially pushing EUR/USD back above the 1.1400 handle, challenging the Dollar's recent strength.
Sentiment by currency
USD+EUR JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: +0.65
Sources & References
How we cover this story
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