EUR/USD Price Forecast: 100-Day SMA blocks bullish reversal
The EUR/USD pair is currently facing resistance at the 100-day SMA, hindering any potential bullish reversal despite recent optimism surrounding the euro. With the current spot at 1.1419, the market remains cautious as upward movement is constrained, reflecting broader concerns about the Eurozone's economic outlook. This critical technical level suggests that without significant positive data or a shift in market sentiment, the euro may struggle to break past this barrier.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target sits at 1.1700 (median across firms), with UBS at the upper bound (1.2000) and Danske Bank at the lower (1.1100). The current spot price of 1.1419 indicates the market is still evaluating its position in light of the recent resistance at the 100-day SMA.
How firms align
Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley are among the firms anticipating a stronger euro, projecting targets of 1.1800 and 1.2000 for March 2026, respectively, aligning closely with the notion of a bullish reversal. In contrast, TMGM and Investec appear more cautious, expecting marginal gains to only 1.1448 and 1.1537 by March 2026. This divergence hints at differing views on macroeconomic fundamentals driving the EUR/USD outlook.
What the data shows
Recent revisions from firms like Deutsche Bank, which raised its March target to 1.1800, indicate a growing consensus among some analysts that the euro may eventually regain traction. Our published research (see /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path-2026-08-16) noted that the spot reached 1.1571 last week, emphasizing the importance of the 1.16 median target in framing the current market perception.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01EUR/USD faces significant resistance at the 100-day SMA near 1.1420.
- 02Market sentiment is mixed, with some firms predicting upward revisions.
- 03The euro may struggle unless economic data supports a bullish narrative.
- 04Concerns over Eurozone growth could add downward pressure.
Market implications
Traders should watch for any breaks above the 100-day SMA which would signify a stronger bullish sentiment. Additionally, upcoming Eurozone economic data releases could influence positioning ahead of the consensus target of 1.1700.
Risks to this view
If data out of the Eurozone underperforms or if global risk sentiment shifts significantly towards the dollar, this could invalidate the bullish outlook for EUR/USD. A fall below 1.1400 might trigger stop-loss orders and exacerbate selling pressure.
Sentiment by currency
USD+EUR JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: +0.30
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
Euro returns below 1.1600 as US Dollar selling pressure eases
Euro: Bullish momentum eyes mid‑1.17s against US Dollar – Scotiabank
EUR/USD bullish momentum targeting 1.17 mid-levels suggests positioning for further dollar weakness if technical breaks hold.
EUR/USD Price Forecast: Conquers 1.1600 as bulls retain control above 100-SMA, 50% Fibo.
EUR/USD technical break above 1.1600 and 100-SMA signals continuation risk; monitor for resistance targets above current levels.