Euro returns below 1.1600 as US Dollar selling pressure eases
The Euro has dropped below the 1.1600 mark as the selling pressure on the US Dollar appears to be easing. This retreat provides momentary respite for the Dollar, allowing it to stabilize against other currencies, including the Euro. Market participants are watching closely as this shift may impact further ECB rate considerations, particularly in light of the current Eurozone economic dynamics.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target is at 1.1600 (median across multiple firms), with the highest forecast from Morgan Stanley at 1.2300 and the lowest from TMG at 1.1448. This moves the current spot of 1.1419 relatively close to the lower end of the spectrum.
How firms align
Goldman Sachs is notably positioned for moderate strength with a March target of 1.1800, while Deutsche Bank shares a similar outlook at 1.1800, reflecting a bullish stance. In contrast, TMG and Investec hold more conservative views with targets near the current spot, suggesting a cautious approach to EUR strength. [Refer to our internal analyses at /research/goldman, /research/deutschebank, and /research/tmgm.]
What the data shows
Recent forecast revisions from ING and Deutsche Bank, both increasing their March target to 1.1700 and 1.1800 respectively, signify a consensus shift towards a slightly more positive outlook for the Euro. Please see our insights on this trend in /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path-2026-08-16.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01EUR/USD slipped below 1.1600 as Dollar selling pressure wanes.
- 02Traders should monitor for further shifts in ECB policy perspectives.
- 03Upcoming economic data could act as a catalyst for movement around 1.1450.
Market implications
Investors should focus on the 1.1450 level for potential support in EUR/USD. Upcoming ECB meetings could provide critical insights that drive the Euro’s direction, impacting our consensus target of 1.1600.
Risks to this view
A reversal of Euro strength could occur if US economic data outperforms expectations or if the Fed signals a more aggressive rate hike path. A breach of 1.1400 could trigger bearish sentiment.
Sentiment by currency
USD~EUR~JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: +0.00
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
Euro: Bullish momentum eyes mid‑1.17s against US Dollar – Scotiabank
EUR/USD bullish momentum targeting 1.17 mid-levels suggests positioning for further dollar weakness if technical breaks hold.
EUR/USD Price Forecast: Conquers 1.1600 as bulls retain control above 100-SMA, 50% Fibo.
EUR/USD technical break above 1.1600 and 100-SMA signals continuation risk; monitor for resistance targets above current levels.
EUR/USD at eight-week high: What happens next
EUR/USD strength to eight-week highs tests resistance; break above could signal shift in rate-cut expectations favoring EUR over USD.