EUR/USD Price Forecast: Conquers 1.1600 as bulls retain control above 100-SMA, 50% Fibo.
The EUR/USD pair has successfully pushed past the 1.1600 threshold, with bullish momentum strengthened by support above the 100-day Simple Moving Average and the 50% Fibonacci retracement level. This movement signals a robust sentiment among buyers, suggesting that further gains may be on the horizon. Given that our internal forecast indicates a median target of 1.1700 by March 2026, current levels seem to align with expectations of stabilization above recent resistance points. The price action is critical to monitor as it may dictate the market's outlook heading into the European Central Bank's upcoming meetings.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target sits at 1.1700 (median across firms), with Goldman at the upper bound (1.1800) and TMGM at the lower bound (1.1447). The prevailing view suggests that the market is leaning towards a bullish sentiment, as indicated by benchmarks from major players.
How firms align
Goldman's alignment with the bullish momentum at 1.1800 supports the headline's framing, while JPMorgan also sees a target of 1.1800 for March 2026, reinforcing the expectation of continued strength. In contrast, firms like TMGM and Investec are more cautious, with targets at 1.1447 and 1.1455 respectively, demonstrating a potential divergence in outlooks.
What the data shows
Notably, recent forecast revisions, such as ING's upgrade to 1.1700 for March, underscore a growing consensus for a stronger Euro. Additionally, insights from /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path-2026-08-16 provide further backing to this bullish bias as the market prepares for upcoming ECB policy decisions.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01EUR/USD breaches 1.1600, signaling strong bullish sentiment.
- 02Key levels to watch include 1.1700 for March 2026 consensus.
- 03A convincing close above 1.1600 may invite further buying interest.
- 04Increasing forecast revisions indicate a upward trend in expectations.
Market implications
Focus now shifts to the ECB meetings where decisions on interest rates may play a crucial role in sustaining this momentum. If the Euro stays above 1.1600, a test of higher targets like 1.1700 by March looks feasible. Monitor positioning leading up to these events for further clues on market sentiment.
Risks to this view
A shift in sentiment would likely occur if economic data from the Eurozone disappoints or if ECB signals a more dovish path, reversing current bullish expectations. Levels falling below the strong support at 1.1500 could also trigger selling pressure.
Sentiment by currency
USD EUR+JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: -0.30
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
Euro returns below 1.1600 as US Dollar selling pressure eases
Euro: Bullish momentum eyes mid‑1.17s against US Dollar – Scotiabank
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EUR/USD at eight-week high: What happens next
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