EUR/USD at eight-week high: What happens next
The EUR/USD has reached an eight-week high, now trading at 1.1419, driven by a combination of hawkish ECB signals and diminishing expectations for aggressive Fed rate hikes. With the currency pair closing in on the upper limits of forecasts, momentum suggests further appreciation could be on the horizon. The recent uptick underscores a shifting sentiment among traders who are adjusting their positions in response to macroeconomic developments and central bank communications.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus target for EUR/USD currently stands at 1.1700 for March 2026, with a range spanning from 1.1200 to 1.2000 across surveyed firms. Notably, JPMorgan and MUFG forecast a robust trajectory, positioning themselves at the upper end of the spectrum with targets of 1.1800 and 1.2600, respectively.
How firms align
JPMorgan is notably aligned with the bullish sentiment reflected in the recent movement, projecting a target of 1.1800 for March 2026. Similarly, Deutsche Bank's revised forecast also supports this view at 1.1800, indicating a consensus amongst major players for an upward trend. On the other hand, firms like TMG and Investec maintain more conservative positions, forecasting targets below the current consensus.
What the data shows
Recent forecast revisions from firms like ING and Deutsche Bank suggest increased bullishness towards the EUR, enhancing expectations for higher valuations. Our research hints at a generalized upward trajectory given the ECB's policy stance, as summarized in /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path-2026-08-16.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01EUR/USD holds at 1.1419, poised for potential gains on strong ECB signals.
- 02Bullish sentiment among key players could further fuel upward movement.
- 03Immediate resistance seen around 1.1500; a break here could accelerate buying.
- 04Continued positioning strategies will be critical in the weeks ahead.
Market implications
Next, watch for developments around the upcoming ECB meeting for cues on policy shifts that could impact the EUR/USD. A sustained hold above 1.1500 may trigger additional bullish positioning ahead of our consensus target of 1.1700.
Risks to this view
A sudden dovish shift from the ECB or unexpected hawkish comments from the Fed could invalidate this bullish view, causing a reversal back towards 1.1200. Monitoring U.S. economic data releases will also be vital in this regard.
Sentiment by currency
USD EUR+JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: -0.40
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
Euro returns below 1.1600 as US Dollar selling pressure eases
Euro: Bullish momentum eyes mid‑1.17s against US Dollar – Scotiabank
EUR/USD bullish momentum targeting 1.17 mid-levels suggests positioning for further dollar weakness if technical breaks hold.
EUR/USD Price Forecast: Conquers 1.1600 as bulls retain control above 100-SMA, 50% Fibo.
EUR/USD technical break above 1.1600 and 100-SMA signals continuation risk; monitor for resistance targets above current levels.