Euro: Bullish momentum eyes mid‑1.17s against US Dollar – Scotiabank
The euro is experiencing bullish momentum against the US dollar, with attention shifting toward the mid-1.17 range, as highlighted by Scotiabank. This outlook aligns with several firms shifting their targets higher, suggesting growing confidence in euro strength amid recent economic data. The current spot rate of 1.1419 indicates potential upside, and the broader sentiment appears to favor EUR appreciation, especially with upcoming market fundamentals. Investors will want to monitor how the euro sustains this momentum against the dollar.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target stands at 1.1700 (median across 11 firms), with JPMorgan at the upper bound (1.2000) and MUFG at the lower bound (1.1800). Scotiabank's bullish view fits within this broader context, indicating a collective sentiment toward EUR strength.
How firms align
Specific firms aligning with the bullish outlook include Goldman and JPMorgan, both targeting 1.1800 for Mar26. Meanwhile, Deutsche Bank also reflects this optimism with a forecast of 1.1800. Their positions reinforce the notion that market sentiment is tilting firmly toward the euro's appreciation in the near-term against the dollar.
What the data shows
Recent revisions indicate a growing optimism, especially with ING raising its Mar26 target to 1.1700 and Deutsche Bank maintaining its 1.1800 view. This aligns with our published insights that advocate for a bullish divergence in the EUR/USD trend, particularly as noted in our research on recent ECB policies.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01EUR/USD targeting mid-1.17s as bullish momentum builds.
- 02Monitor euro strength around economic fundamentals.
- 03Watch for USD weakness to support higher EUR levels.
Market implications
In the near term, traders should keep an eye on resistance levels around 1.1700 as a key hurdle for EUR/USD. Upcoming economic releases from the Eurozone could serve as a catalyst, influencing market sentiment. Our consensus target of 1.1700 is pivotal in this regard.
Risks to this view
Any unexpected hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve could undermine the euro's recent gains against the dollar. Additionally, any adverse economic data from the Eurozone could shift sentiment rapidly, reversing the bullish outlook that has developed.
Sentiment by currency
USD EUR+JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: -0.65
Firms mentioned
Sources & References
How we cover this story
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