EUR/USD Price Forecast: Looks set to extend advance beyond 1.1600
EUR/USD is breaking through the resistance level of 1.1600, signaling potential for continued bullish momentum in the currency pair. The underlying sentiment remains bullish on the euro against the USD, reflected in the broader consensus forecast within the market. The technical indicators suggest that if these gains hold, EUR/USD could rally further, potentially challenging higher targets in the near term.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target sits at 1.1583 (median across firms), with Commerzbank at the upper bound (1.2200) and TMGm at the lower (1.1448). The current sentiment suggests a bullish lean towards the euro, as highlighted by the recent price action indicating a break above key resistance levels.
How firms align
Morgan Stanley and Deutsche Bank reflect bullish stances with targets of 1.2000 and 1.2500, respectively, both indicating a strong alignment with the positive outlook presented in the headline. Conversely, firms like UOB and TMGm demonstrate more conservative positions, with targets around 1.1536 and 1.1447, suggesting caution despite recent EUR advancements.
What the data shows
Recent forecast revisions show a consistent upward adjustment among several firms, with BofA and ING raising their March 2026 targets to 1.1700. Our previous research indicates a divergence between the market consensus and current spot, with a noteworthy gap highlighted in /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path-2026-08-05.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01EUR/USD is currently breaking resistance at 1.1600.
- 02Focus on the upward momentum in EUR as technical indicators align.
- 03Potential extension towards targets above 1.1700 could be driven by continued USD weakening.
Market implications
Next, watch for price action around 1.1600; should it hold, it may open doors for a test of higher resistance levels. Additionally, upcoming economic data releases could influence market sentiment, making alignment with our consensus target of 1.1583 critical.
Risks to this view
The bullish outlook would be invalidated by a decisive break below 1.1400, signaling a reversal in bullish sentiment. Key data releases, especially related to USD strength, could exacerbate volatility and challenge the current upward trajectory.
Sentiment by currency
USD EUR+JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: -0.35
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
Morning briefing: EUR/USD can attempt to test 1.1600
EUR/USD technical setup suggests upside momentum toward 1.1600 resistance, implying near-term USD weakness in the pair.