Morning briefing: EUR/USD can attempt to test 1.1600
The technical setup for EUR/USD suggests a possible test of the 1.1600 resistance level, indicating growing bullish sentiment for the euro against the increasingly bearish dollar. This aligns with the broader macroeconomic context where the recent bearish USD sentiment could be attributed to shifts in interest rate expectations amid mixed economic data. Traders should keep an eye on key resistance levels as price action unfolds.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our current consensus target for EUR/USD is 1.1583, reflecting the median across eleven firms, with Commerzbank at the higher end predicting 1.2200 and MUFG at the lower end estimating 1.1800. FX Street's analysis aligns with this optimistic view, suggesting potential upside movement towards the 1.1600 resistance.
How firms align
Several firms echo this bullish outlook; for instance, Commerzbank projects a target of 1.1900 for March 2026, while Morgan Stanley sets a more aggressive forecast at 1.2000 for the same period. Conversely, firms like MUFG and TMGMs' targets indicate a more cautious approach, at 1.1800 and 1.1448 respectively, suggesting a split in sentiment across the board.
What the data shows
Recent adjustments in forecasts underline the bullish sentiment, with BofA recently revising their March target up to 1.1700. Our own published insights further support this trajectory, as seen in /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path-2026-08-05, emphasizing the importance of the ECB's interest rate path on the currency pair.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01EUR/USD showing bullish momentum, eyeing resistance at 1.1600.
- 02Key technical levels may dictate short-term trading strategies.
- 03Watch for upcoming economic data that could impact USD strength.
Market implications
Traders should monitor EUR/USD closely as it approaches the significant resistance at 1.1600, which, if breached, could open the door for further upside. Additionally, upcoming central bank communications will be pivotal in shaping market expectations.
Risks to this view
A surprising uptick in U.S. economic indicators or hawkish signals from the Fed could reverse the current USD weakness, undermining bullish forecasts for EUR/USD. Key attention should focus on employment and inflation data releases.
Sentiment by currency
USD EUR+JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: -0.30
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
EUR/USD Price Forecast: Looks set to extend advance beyond 1.1600
Technical break above 1.1600 suggests momentum flow may continue pressuring USD/EUR higher in near term.