Tier 2 specialistfxstreet.comFX
Loading…
FX BANK FORECAST · COVERAGE
Institutional FX coverage in your inbox
Aggregated year-end forecasts, scenario shifts, and curated analyst notes from 38 institutional desks. No promotion.
FX BANK FORECAST · COVERAGE
Aggregated year-end forecasts, scenario shifts, and curated analyst notes from 38 institutional desks. No promotion.
The EUR/USD appears to be consolidating below the 1.1200 resistance, struggling under the weight of rising oil prices and persistent concerns about Eurozone debt. This dynamic has fostered a bearish sentiment for the euro, as traders remain cautious about potential stagflation risks influencing ECB policy actions. With the pair currently trading at 1.1253, the outlook indicates structural challenges that could lead to further downside in the near term.
Our consensus EUR/USD target stands at 1.1634 (median across 30 firms), with several firms like CIBC and Rabobank pushing targets above 1.1700 for March 2026. In contrast, TMGM and HSBC offer lower estimates, at 1.1447 and 1.1000, respectively, indicating a significant divergence in outlooks among analysts.
While The headline suggests downward pressure on the euro, firms such as Rabobank are targeting 1.1759 in the near term, reflecting a more optimistic view compared to the headline. On the other hand, TMGM's forecast of 1.1447 aligns with bearish sentiments, emphasizing ongoing concerns. This split in opinion is also highlighted in our report from Rabobank at /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path-2026-10-05.
Recent revisions show varied expectations, with UOB projecting a target of 1.1536 for March 26, aligning closely with the current sentiment. Meanwhile, our earlier insights indicate a notable consensus gap, with spot levels significantly below target estimates, as seen in /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path-2026-10-07.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
Market implications
Investors should monitor movement around 1.1200 for signs of a breach, which could indicate further downside. Additionally, any volatility from upcoming ECB meetings could provide clarity on the euro's direction, particularly relative to our consensus target of 1.1634.
Risks to this view
A reversal could occur if inflationary pressures lead to unexpected ECB policy shifts, particularly if rates are raised more aggressively than anticipated. Such developments could elevate euro strength against the dollar, invalidating the current bearish view.
Sentiment by currency
USD+EUR JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: +0.35
How we cover this story
ING structural thesis on EUR/USD weakness suggests institutional positioning remains tilted short euro, limiting rally attempts on technicals.
EUR/USD upside limited by technical resistance; USD strength persists despite modest euro recovery attempts.
USD weakness sustaining EUR/USD above 1.1230 while bearish technicals persist suggests consolidation risk ahead of key economic data.
French sovereign debt concerns create near-term EUR/USD headwind, particularly if spreads widen further versus Bunds.
Articles FX Daily: High bar for a dollar correction Published 07:40 FX Share X LinkedIn E-mail Copy link Share X LinkedIn E-mail Copy link Download Dollar drops may continue to prove short-lived and quite small in size as bond markets remain fragile and the Fed narrative hawkish.
Articles Rates Spark: Don’t get too comfortable Published 17:09 Rates Spark Share X LinkedIn E-mail Copy link Share X LinkedIn E-mail Copy link Download US Treasuries have calmed. But plenty of opportunity and time for markets to (re-)change their tune. Italian bond investors sig
Articles Rates Spark: Volatility is no friend of spreads Published 07:55 Rates Spark Share X LinkedIn E-mail Copy link Share X LinkedIn E-mail Copy link Download Elevated global rates volatility is keeping EGB spreads under pressure, despite European political efforts. With infla
EUR/USD spot sits 3.81% below the 30-firm Dec-26 consensus median of 1.1634, signalling a broadly bullish street view the market has yet to validate.
EUR/USD spot at 1.1243 sits 3.36% below the 30-firm Dec-26 consensus of 1.1634, with a 0.155 dispersion range signalling deep disagreement on the path ahead.
EUR/USD trades 3.71% below the 30-firm median Dec-26 target of 1.1634, leaving a wide consensus-to-spot gap that demands explanation.