Euro: Elusive recovery prospects against US Dollar – ING
The euro remains under pressure against the US dollar, with analysts at ING emphasizing the lack of recovery prospects. Their structural thesis indicates that institutional positioning is predominantly short on the euro, which constrains any potential for rally attempts, even on a technical basis. This sentiment is supported by the current strength of the dollar and a bearish outlook on euro fundamentals, making any substantial rebounds seem elusive.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target sits at 1.1634 (median across 12 firms), with CIBC at the upper bound (1.2200) and BofA at the lower (1.1500). ING's view aligns closely with this consensus, reflecting the bearish tone on the euro amidst ongoing USD strength.
How firms align
Rabobank, for instance, has a target of 1.1759 for March 2026, which supports the outlook of gradual euro recovery, albeit with limited bullish commitment compared to the current spot. In contrast, TMGM and Mizuho present more pessimistic near-term targets of 1.1447 and 1.1300 respectively, indicating a divergence from ING's positioning.
What the data shows
Recent revisions show Mizuho has lowered their March 2026 target to 1.1500, suggesting a cautious approach. Our earlier insights highlight the significant consensus gap, with the current spot at 1.1253 against a median target of 1.1634, as detailed in /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path-2026-10-07.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01EUR/USD faces short-term resistance, currently at 1.1253.
- 02Short euro positioning remains a critical factor for traders to monitor.
- 03Key levels to watch include the recent consensus target of 1.1634 and potential bearish breakout below 1.12.
Market implications
Next, market participants should keep an eye on the release of eurozone economic data, which could impact positioning ahead of the ECB meetings. The consensus target of 1.1634 remains a crucial benchmark for gauging recovery potential in EUR/USD.
Risks to this view
A significant turnaround in euro fundamentals, driven by stronger-than-expected economic data or a dovish shift from the Federal Reserve, could catalyze a rapid reversal in euro sentiment, invalidating the current bearish outlook.
Sentiment by currency
USD+EUR JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: +0.65
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
EUR/USD Price Forecast: Rallies fail above 1.1200 amid high Oil prices, debt woes
EUR resistance failure at 1.1200 combined with Eurozone debt concerns suggests structural headwinds for EUR/USD near-term; elevated oil prices add stagflation risk to ECB policy calculus.
Euro: Recovery capped by resistance against US Dollar – UOB
EUR/USD upside limited by technical resistance; USD strength persists despite modest euro recovery attempts.
EUR/USD Price Forecast: Holds gains near 1.1230 on softer USD; bearish bias persists
USD weakness sustaining EUR/USD above 1.1230 while bearish technicals persist suggests consolidation risk ahead of key economic data.