EUR/USD Price Forecast: Rising US Dollar backs fresh downside leg below 1.1100
EUR/USD is experiencing renewed downward pressure as the US Dollar strengthens, leading to the testing of key support levels around 1.1100. This trend indicates a possible downside breakout that may trigger further technical momentum in the FX market. The market's current sentiment is decidedly bearish on the Euro, which could suggest larger structural shifts as traders adjust their positions. This move is particularly critical given the recent consensus views and expectations surrounding monetary policy divergence between the US and Eurozone.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target stands at 1.1400 (median across 12 firms), with RBC placing the upper bound at 1.2000 and ABN AMRO at the lower end with 1.1284. [PUBLISHER] aligns with the bearish sentiment, noting the significant move below 1.1100 in their forecast.
How firms align
Several firms such as RBC (targeting 1.2000 by Mar26) and HSBC (1.1700) reflect a more optimistic outlook compared to the bearish perspective suggested by the headline. Conversely, Mizuho and Scotiabank have revised their targets downwards recently, indicating a cautious stance against the Euro’s potential recovery, as noted in /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path-2026-11-11.
What the data shows
Recent forecast revisions indicate a shift in sentiment, with firms like Mizuho now targeting 1.1300 for March 26, down from previous expectations. The latest consensus indicates a bearish divergence from our earlier assessments, reinforcing the need to monitor near-term price action closely for short-selling opportunities against the Euro.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01EUR/USD tests critical support at 1.1100; downside break may trigger further momentum.
- 02Traders should prepare for bearish trading strategies if USD strength persists.
- 03Upcoming Fed meeting could further influence USD positioning; watch for liquidity flows around 1.1100.
- 04Technical indicators suggest a strong likelihood of a bearish continuation if current trends hold.
Market implications
Traders should keep a close eye on the 1.1100 support level. A breach below could signal a strong bearish trend, prompting stops from long positions and selling pressure. The upcoming Fed meeting may also add volatility, impacting the consensus target of 1.1400 by March 26.
Risks to this view
A reversal in this bearish view could occur if economic data from the US shows unexpected weakness or if the ECB signals a more hawkish stance than anticipated. Additionally, geopolitical developments or a recovery in Eurozone growth could undermine the Dollar's current strength.
Sentiment by currency
USD+EUR JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: +0.65
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
EUR/USD: Support holds but upside limited – ING
EUR/USD support at 1.1110 likely temporary; weak bounce momentum suggests USD strength remains favored on any retracement.
EUR/USD Price Forecast: Sees fresh downside below 1.1100
EUR/USD breakdown below 1.1100 signals extension of downtrend; monitor support collapse for USD strength confirmation.
Morning briefing: EUR/USD can continue to trade within 1.1100-1.1250
October CPI beat 4.08% YoY vs 3.72% prior, lifting DXY above 101 with technical scope toward 103-104; near-term USD strength intact.