Morning briefing: EUR/USD can continue to trade within 1.1100-1.1250
The recent rise in the Dollar Index following a higher-than-expected CPI reading indicates a strengthening greenback, potentially anchoring EUR/USD within the 1.1100-1.1250 range mentioned in today's morning briefing. Market sentiment is leaning toward a bullish dollar scenario, yet with current trading around 1.1373, the euro remains resilient. These dynamics highlight the delicate balance of inflationary pressures versus broader economic outlook, crucial for positioning in the current FX landscape.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target currently stands at 1.1400 (median across 12 firms), with CIBC at the upper bound (1.2200) and HSBC at the lower end (1.1000). The outlook leans toward stability, as firms like RBC and Nomura maintain optimistic targets for 1.1700 and 1.1800, respectively.
How firms align
Only a few firms are markedly aligned with the range proposed by fxstreet.com; HSBC aims for a target of 1.1000, while RBC is considerably more optimistic at 1.1700. This suggests that while there is a consensus on the range, the specific responses to the dollar's strength vary substantially - as seen in our internal reports like /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path-2026-11-10.
What the data shows
Recent forecast revisions show mixed sentiment among analysts, with Mizuho lowering its Mar26 target to 1.1300, while UBS remains considerably bullish, projecting 1.2000 for the same period. For a broader analysis, see our ongoing insights in /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path.
How firms align with this view
Key takeaways
- 01The Dollar Index's CPI reaction indicates potential for further dollar strength.
- 02Market positioning remains cautious amidst fluctuating inflation data.
- 03Watch USD stability with EUR/USD risk hanging near 1.1250 if CPI pressures continue.
Market implications
Next, attention will pivot to the upcoming economic data releases, notably the inflation reports as they could solidify forecasts around the consensus target of 1.1400. Key technical levels at 1.1250 will be critical to watch for potential breakouts or reversals in trend.
Risks to this view
Should the USD face unexpected weakness or geopolitical tensions arise, it could invalidate the bullish outlook, prompting a reassessment of our EUR/USD targets. A slip below 1.1100 might signal a stronger downside move.
Sentiment by currency
USD+EUR JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: +0.65
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
EUR/USD Price Forecast: Rising US Dollar backs fresh downside leg below 1.1100
USD strength testing EUR/USD through 1.1100 support; break below triggers technical momentum lower on mean reversion plays.
EUR/USD: Support holds but upside limited – ING
EUR/USD support at 1.1110 likely temporary; weak bounce momentum suggests USD strength remains favored on any retracement.
EUR/USD Price Forecast: Sees fresh downside below 1.1100
EUR/USD breakdown below 1.1100 signals extension of downtrend; monitor support collapse for USD strength confirmation.