EUR/USD Price Forecast: Struggling below 1.1400 with all eyes on the Fed
The EUR/USD pair is currently hovering around 1.1419, struggling to break through the 1.1400 threshold as market participants await new guidance from the Federal Reserve. This resistance suggests a bearish sentiment on the euro, coinciding with a bullish outlook on the USD, particularly given the Fed's likely hawkish posturing at its upcoming meeting. The current landscape indicates that investors are pricing in this USD strength premium, which adds pressure on EUR/USD.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target currently sits at 1.1525 (median across firms), with Commerzbank setting the upper bound at 1.2000 and MUFG at the lower end with a target of 1.1800. The current market pricing indicates a divergence from these targets, reinforcing the bearish stance on the euro as highlighted in [fxstreet.com].
How firms align
BofA's target at 1.1700 for March 2026 aligns closely with the overall consensus, while Deutsche Bank and RBC also reflect bullish views with targets of 1.1800 and 1.1600, respectively. However, firms like TMGMs' conservative approach of 1.1448 by June 2026 displays caution amid the current USD strength narrative.
What the data shows
Recent forecast revisions indicate a slight adjustment with HSBC lowering its March target to 1.1700 while Commerzbank holds a more optimistic view at 1.1900. Insights from our previous research also underscore these dynamics with EUR/USD trading below consensus levels as projected in /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01EUR/USD struggling below 1.1400 signals bearish euro sentiment amid USD strength.
- 02Traders should monitor FOMC statements for potential volatility in EUR/USD.
- 03Fed's hawkish guidance could propel USD higher, challenging current EUR levels.
Market implications
Next, watch the upcoming FOMC meeting as USD positioning could lead the EUR/USD to test the 1.1400 resistance level again. Our consensus target remains at 1.1525, underlining potential upside against current spot pricing.
Risks to this view
A weaker-than-expected Fed signal or unexpected dovish comments could invalidate this bearish view on EUR/USD, potentially sending the pair back towards 1.1600. Market sentiment shifts could also bring about a re-evaluation of growth forecasts influencing the euro.
Sentiment by currency
USD+EUR JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: +0.60
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
Euro: Seen back toward 1.15 against US Dollar – ING
ING targets EUR/USD 1.15 implies 2-3% downside from current levels; USD strength narrative firming among major institutional flow houses.
Euro: Softer Fed signals may lift EUR against US Dollar – Commerzbank
Fed pivot signals reduce real rate differentials, creating technical support for EUR/USD above recent lows.