Euro: Seen back toward 1.15 against US Dollar – ING
ING's forecast suggests a bearish outlook for the euro, targeting a retreat towards 1.15 against the USD, reflecting a strengthening dollar narrative amidst shifting economic conditions. This aligns with increasing institutional flows indicating confidence in USD strength, which could exert downward pressure on the euro. With the current EUR/USD spot at 1.1419, the projected downside of 2-3% from ING's target highlights a significant divergence from the broader consensus still leaning towards higher projections for the euro in coming months.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target sits at 1.1525 (median across firms), with Commerzbank at the upper bound (1.2200) and Bank of America at the lower (1.1240). ING’s outlook aligns more with the bearish sentiment, as many firms still project higher targets despite recent USD strength.
How firms align
Notably, while ING is projecting a move towards 1.15, Deutsche Bank, JPMorgan, and others maintain higher views, with targets of 1.1800 or more for March 2026. This contrasting stance highlights a divergence, with firms like BofA targeting only 1.1700 for March, indicating a cautious view against ING’s bearish sentiment.
What the data shows
In recent revisions, BofA recently adjusted their EUR forecast to 1.1700 for March, indicating market hesitation in a significant euro decline despite ING's more drastic stance. Related insights such as /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path provide context on the ongoing EUR/USD divergence.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01ING targets EUR/USD at 1.15, implying 2-3% downside from current levels.
- 02Institutional flows are favoring a bullish USD narrative.
- 03BofA's March target at 1.1700 reflects caution amidst bearish sentiments.
- 04The divergence among firms indicates uncertainty in the euro's trajectory.
Market implications
Traders should watch for the EUR/USD pair's behavior near the 1.15 target, as movements could signal broader trends in USD strength. Key calendar events such as upcoming ECB announcements may also influence positioning ahead of the March 2026 target consensus.
Risks to this view
A reversal of this bearish outlook could occur if Eurozone economic data or ECB policy signals support stronger euro fundamentals, particularly if inflation targets become a focal point for the ECB in the upcoming meetings.
Sentiment by currency
USD+EUR JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: +0.65
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
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