EUR/USD Price Forecast: Weakens to near 1.1500 as 100-day SMA caps upside
The EUR/USD has recently weakened, currently trading near 1.1419, following resistance at the 100-day SMA which has capped upside potential. This technical breakdown signals near-term weakness towards the critical support level of 1.1500. Market sentiment remains bearish for the euro, contributing to this downward trajectory, as indicated by the prevailing USD strength. The move reflects broader themes of divergence between U.S. and European monetary policy outlooks, making this a crucial moment for traders to reassess their strategies.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target currently stands at 1.1550 (median across ten firms), with Deutsche Bank holding the upper bound at 1.2500 and Bank of America at the lower end with a target of 1.1240. The latest analysis aligns closely with market sentiment, where the breakdown below significant moving averages poses further risk to the long positions in the euro.
How firms align
Goldman Sachs and Commerzbank are notably bullish, setting targets at 1.1800 and 1.1900 respectively for March 2026, positioning themselves in stark contrast to the current market dynamics highlighted by the technical analysis. On the downside, BofA’s target of 1.1500 suggests that they are cautious, reflecting an increasingly bearish sentiment that aligns with the recent price action. See our internal reports for further insights, particularly from /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path-2026-07-30.
What the data shows
Recent euro forecasts have shown downward adjustments from BofA, indicating a shift in sentiment. Their downgrade to 1.1500 for March 2026 emphasizes the prevailing bearish outlook, which is corroborated by several firms within our coverage. Analysis from /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path provides a comprehensive overview of the factors influencing these shifting targets.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01EUR/USD faces resistance at the 100-day SMA, weakening to 1.1419.
- 02Traders should monitor near-term support around 1.1500 for potential breakouts.
- 03Bearish bias in forecasts, particularly from BofA, signals ongoing selling pressure.
- 04Watch for potential impact from upcoming ECB policy adjustments.
Market implications
Next week, traders should keep an eye on the 1.1500 support level and any updates from the ECB on monetary policy to gauge further implications for the euro. Additionally, the consensus number of 1.1550 may serve as a reference point for future positioning strategies.
Risks to this view
A reversal in this bearish sentiment could occur if the ECB signals more aggressive policy tightening than currently anticipated. Any robust data out of the Eurozone could prompt a reassessment and push the euro back above the 100-day SMA, invalidating the short-term bearish outlook.
Sentiment by currency
USD+EUR JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: +0.45
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
Euro: Data-driven range trade into Q3 against US Dollar – ING
EUR/USD likely consolidating within established range pending macro data releases that will drive Q3 direction.
Euro: Fed split supports EUR against US Dollar – Commerzbank
Fed dissent narrows terminal rate conviction, reducing USD yield support and tilting EUR/USD technical bias higher near-term.
EUR/USD Price Forecast: A bullish comeback seems underway
EUR/USD momentum indicators suggest reversal setup; watch 1.0900 support for confirmation of sustained recovery attempt.