EUR/USD to 1.1600? GBP/USD and AUD/USD test resist [Video]
The EUR/USD pair is currently drawing attention as analysts speculate on a potential move towards the 1.1600 mark, with the currency sitting at 1.1419. This interest aligns with recent forecasts, suggesting that the Euro might be gaining traction against the dollar in the medium term. Such a movement is pertinent as traders assess the ECB's policy direction against U.S. economic indicators. The consensus among firms is leaning towards a more bullish outlook for the Euro, further supported by recent upward revisions in target levels.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target currently stands at 1.1600, with the median across firms indicating a bullish sentiment. While firms like Goldman and JPMorgan are pushing for targets as high as 1.2000 for March 2026, more conservative estimates from firms like TMGM position the pair lower at 1.1447. This divergence reflects the varying degrees of optimism among analysts regarding the Euro's potential strength.
How firms align
Firms such as Goldman and JPMorgan are supportive of the bullish narrative emerging from recent analysis, both targeting 1.1800 for the March 2026 timeframe. This contrasts sharply with TMGM and Investec, which maintain conservative targets around 1.1447 and 1.1455 respectively, indicating a more cautious outlook in light of existing economic conditions. For further context, see our internal reports for each firm.
What the data shows
Recent forecast revisions suggest a tightening of targets among several banks, indicating a growing consensus towards a more robust Euro. Notably, Deutsche Bank has revised its EUR target to 1.1800 for March 2026, reflecting this positive sentiment. For more insights, refer to our coverage found in /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path-2026-08-16.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01Consensus EUR/USD target now at 1.1600, reflecting bullish momentum.
- 02Market sentiment is increasingly favoring the Euro's strength against the Dollar.
- 03Increased optimism is seen with several firms shifting forecasts upwards.
- 04Upcoming ECB meetings could be pivotal in determining future price action.
Market implications
Traders should watch for EUR/USD approaching the 1.1600 mark, especially as recent forecasts indicate potential bullish momentum. Additionally, economic data releases from the Eurozone and U.S. could significantly impact this outlook, particularly as the consensus suggests a target of 1.1600 throughout 2026.
Risks to this view
Should the U.S. economic indicators show stronger-than-expected resilience, it might challenge the bullish views, with a significant catalyst being any hawkish shift in Fed statements. A fall below the current spot of 1.1419 could also invalidate the bullish stance many firms are adopting.
Sentiment by currency
USD+EUR JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: +0.30
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
Euro returns below 1.1600 as US Dollar selling pressure eases
Euro: Bullish momentum eyes mid‑1.17s against US Dollar – Scotiabank
EUR/USD bullish momentum targeting 1.17 mid-levels suggests positioning for further dollar weakness if technical breaks hold.
EUR/USD Price Forecast: Conquers 1.1600 as bulls retain control above 100-SMA, 50% Fibo.
EUR/USD technical break above 1.1600 and 100-SMA signals continuation risk; monitor for resistance targets above current levels.