EUR/USD: Under pressure on Euro stress – Deutsche Bank
The EUR/USD pair is facing renewed pressure as highlighted by Deutsche Bank, primarily driven by increasing stress within the Eurozone. Traders are focusing on economic indicators that suggest a weakening outlook for the Euro, with concerns about inflation and potential policy responses from the ECB. Currently trading at 1.1446, the currency pair is notably below the consensus median target, indicating market skepticism towards the Euro's short-term recovery.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target is anchored at 1.1700 (median across 11 firms), with CIBC projecting the highest at 1.2200 and Lloyds the lowest at 1.1200. This reflects significant divergence in expectations, particularly amid current market dynamics.
How firms align
Notably, firms like SocGen and Nomura are aligned with the bearish sentiment towards the Euro, both setting their March 2026 targets at 1.1700. Contrarily, RBC and Commerzbank present a more optimistic outlook, with RBC targeting 1.1600 while Commerzbank sets a target of 1.1900 for the same tenor. Their respective reports can be found at /reports/socgen and /reports/nomura.
What the data shows
Recent forecast revisions by BofA indicate a downward adjustment for December 2026, now at 1.1500, suggesting that even bullish contributors are reevaluating their positions. For further context, see our recent analysis in /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path-2026-09-30.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01EUR/USD spot at 1.1446, below consensus target of 1.1700.
- 02Market focus shifts to ECB policy response amid Eurozone stress.
- 03A break below 1.14 may trigger further selling pressure.
- 04Traders should monitor upcoming Eurozone economic data releases.
Market implications
Traders should watch for critical support at the 1.14 level, as a breach could lead to a test of the next support zone. Additionally, the ECB's upcoming meeting on 2026-10-12 could provide insights into monetary policy direction impacting the Euro.
Risks to this view
An unexpected rebound in economic indicators or a more aggressive policy stance from the ECB could invalidate the current bearish outlook. Specifically, a return above 1.15 would challenge prevailing negative sentiment in the market.
Sentiment by currency
USD+EUR JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: +0.65
Firms mentioned
Sources & References
How we cover this story
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