Euro: Decline nears support zone against US Dollar – Scotiabank
The euro is approaching a significant support zone against the US dollar, as highlighted by Scotiabank's analysis. This decline, with the current spot at 1.1384, raises questions about the sustainability of the euro, especially as the market digests upcoming economic indicators. The recent forecasts suggest divergence in views among major firms, making this a critical juncture for EUR/USD trading strategies.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus target for EUR/USD currently stands at 1.1700 (median across several firms), with Nomura at the upper bound (1.2000) and Danske Bank at the lower (1.1100). Scotiabank aligns with the view that the euro is nearing support, which could lead to potential recovery if the level holds.
How firms align
Scotiabank shares a cautious stance as it positions the euro close to a support level, while firms like BofA are more pessimistic with a target of 1.1455 for March 2026, suggesting bearish sentiment on the EUR/USD pair. Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley forecasts a more optimistic target of 1.2000 for March 2026, indicating differing outlooks within the market, as noted in our internal research on these targets (/research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path-2026-09-23).
What the data shows
_revisions from firms over the past weeks showcase the volatility of EUR/USD expectations, with BofA and ANZ recently adjusting their March 2026 targets to 1.1700 and 1.1609 respectively._ This indicates a tightening window for the euro to regain traction against the dollar as per our insights from /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01EUR/USD approaches a critical support level around 1.1350.
- 02Traders should monitor European macroeconomic data releases for directional cues.
- 03If EUR/USD breaks below 1.1350, further selling pressure may emerge.
- 04Market sentiment is mixed, complicating outlooks for forthcoming trades.
Market implications
The next significant levels to monitor are around 1.1350 for support, with key economic indicators due for release in the coming days. Any firm prints above this level could validate bullish sentiments and influence our consensus target of 1.1700 for the pair.
Risks to this view
A break below the 1.1350 support could invalidate bullish scenarios, prompting a reevaluation of the euro's trajectory. Additionally, unexpected hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve could lead to rapid adjustments in market positioning.
Sentiment by currency
USD+EUR JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: +0.65
Firms mentioned
Sources & References
How we cover this story
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