Euro: EUR/USD Bearish risks toward 1.10 – ING
ING's analysis highlights bearish risks for the euro, suggesting EUR/USD could reach 1.10 if current macro headwinds persist. This bearish sentiment aligns with a broader outlook as investors weigh potential divergence in economic performance. The currency pair's current spot at 1.1446 implies significant resistance above 1.15, marking a critical level for traders to monitor amidst a strengthening USD environment. A potential support break could alter market positioning significantly.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target stands at 1.1700 (median across 12 firms), with RBC's projection at the upper bound (1.2000) and HSBC at the lower bound (1.1000). ING's bearish outlook contrasts with the general consensus but resonates with several market observers considering the potential for further USD strength.
How firms align
Several firms like Commerzbank (1.1900) and Barclays (1.1700) are more optimistic about the euro, aligning with higher targets compared to ING's outlook. Conversely, BofA maintains a more cautious stance with projections as low as 1.1500 for early 2026, signaling potential caution against ING’s bearish view.
What the data shows
Recent forecasts indicate a mixed sentiment, with BofA revising down to 1.1500 for March 2026 and ANZ also adjusting its outlook. Our published insights, including /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path-2026-09-30, detail the divergence from current spot rates, emphasizing the challenges faced by the euro amidst evolving macro conditions.
Key takeaways
- 01ING warns of bearish EUR/USD risks, potentially targeting 1.10.
- 02Monitors needed on support levels; a break below 1.14 could accelerate USD gains.
- 03Watch for macro economic data that could influence ECB's policy direction.
- 04Key June and December targets remain notably higher among many firms.
Market implications
Next, watch the 1.14 support level closely. A breach could trigger additional selling pressure on the euro, aligning more with ING's bearish narrative. Upcoming economic data releases and the ECB's stance could further clarify market positioning, but our consensus target remains at 1.1700 for March.
Risks to this view
This view would be invalidated if there's a strong economic rebound in the eurozone or unexpected dovish shifts from the Federal Reserve. Particularly, a shift in monetary policy signaling a more aggressive ECB response could help strengthen the euro against the dollar.
Sentiment by currency
USD+EUR JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: +0.60
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
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Cross-firm research
EUR/USD Consensus Check: Spot at 1.1349, Median Target 1.17 — Week of September 30, 2026
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