Euro: Lower year-end target at 1.13 against US Dollar – ING
ING has revised its year-end EUR/USD target downward to 1.13, a significant adjustment that reflects evolving economic conditions and relative growth prospects between the Eurozone and the US. As the EUR/USD currently trades at 1.1253, this forecast signals a potential weakening of the Euro against the Dollar in the closing months of the year, further confirming expectations of sustained US dollar strength. Notably, the Euro's underperformance aligns with wider market sentiment, suggesting traders should be prepared for a sluggish recovery of the Euro amidst ongoing geopolitical tensions and economic headwinds.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target currently stands at 1.16 (median across multiple firms), with the most optimistic view from CIBC at 1.2200 and the most pessimistic from Mizuho at 1.1300. ING's revised target of 1.13 positions them below our median, highlighting a bearish sentiment around the Euro's trajectory against the US Dollar.
How firms align
Firm perspectives are diverse; for instance, Rabobank maintains a higher target of 1.1759 for March 2026, while Mizuho is more bearish, forecasting 1.1300. ING's target shift reflects a cautious stance that is echoed by firms like Citi, which already foresees a lower target of 1.1300 for March 2026. [Research from /reports/ing] illustrates the underlying shifts in sentiment towards the Euro, influenced by macroeconomic trends.
What the data shows
Recent revisions highlight a growing bearish sentiment towards the Euro, with UOB and Mizuho adjusting their targets downwards in the last 14 days. For more context, refer to our analysis in /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path-2026-10-12, which discusses the prevailing gap between current spot rates and future targets.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01ING's new year-end EUR/USD target of 1.13 reflects bearish sentiment.
- 02Traders should brace for continued Dollar strength against the Euro.
- 03A shift in Eurozone economic stability could trigger further downward revisions.
Market implications
Next, watch the Euro's performance against significant resistance levels, particularly 1.12, which is vital for Euro bulls. Traders should align positions with the consensus target of 1.16 as a reference point for potential adjustments in the upcoming Eurozone economic data releases.
Risks to this view
A reversal of this bearish view could materialize if surprisingly positive economic indicators emerge from the Eurozone or if US data indicates a weakening economy. Any shift in ECB policy towards a more hawkish stance or geopolitical developments could also challenge ING's revised forecast.
Sentiment by currency
USD+EUR JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: +0.65
Sources & References
How we cover this story
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