Euro: Positioning supports gradual gains against US Dollar – ING
The Euro is poised for gradual appreciation against the US Dollar, bolstered by favorable positioning as highlighted by ING. This aligns with our internal sentiment suggesting bullish attributes for the Euro, while the overwhelming short positions in the USD provide a supportive backdrop for potential upside. With the current spot at 1.1446, this sentiment shift may reduce downside risks, making the dynamics worth monitoring closely in the coming sessions.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus target for EUR/USD stands at 1.1684, with estimates ranging from a low of 1.1200 (Danske Bank) to a high of 1.2000 (Standard Chartered and Morgan Stanley). The positioning referenced in the ING report indicates a broader market sentiment that aligns with the upper targets observed from firms like RBC and Nomura.
How firms align
Firms like Investec and RBC share a bullish outlook for the Euro, with targets for March 2026 at 1.1455 and 1.1600, respectively. This aligns with ING's perspective on the potential for gradual gains in EUR/USD against the backdrop of shifting positioning. Additionally, our reports indicate that firms like Standard Chartered and Morgan Stanley are also targeting 1.2000 in the medium term, suggesting a firm consensus towards Euro strength.
What the data shows
Recent forecast adjustments from banks like Deutsche Bank and UOB have suggested a closer alignment around the 1.1800 mark for March, further indicating a potential upward drift for the Euro. For more detailed analysis, refer to our research at /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path-2026-08-23.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01EUR/USD at 1.1446 with considerable bullish positioning in the market.
- 02Crowded USD short positions may be alleviating near-term downside.
- 03Watch for USD reactions to upcoming economic data as a risk factor.
Market implications
Market watchers should focus on the resistance level around 1.1500 and any shifts in positioning ahead of key economic releases next week. Our consensus target of 1.1684 remains indicative of bullish sentiment towards the Euro.
Risks to this view
A reversal in sentiment could occur if US inflation data comes in stronger than expected, which would support the Dollar and likely invalidate the current bullish outlook for the Euro.
Sentiment by currency
USD EUR+JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: -0.35
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
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