Euro: Range-bound before FOMC against US Dollar – ING
The euro maintains a range-bound posture against the US dollar ahead of the upcoming FOMC meeting, as traders remain cautious and await directional clarity. ING highlights the euro's stability, reflective of broader market sentiment as traders weigh potential Fed policy adjustments. Current dynamics emphasize the euro's resilience amidst global economic uncertainty, making this range a critical zone for market participants as they gauge future movements.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target sits at 1.1700 (median across 11 firms), with ING aligning closely to this at 1.1700 for March 2026. The firm targets show a notable spread, with MUFG at the highest end at 1.2600 while Danske Bank reflects bearish sentiment with a projection of 1.1100.
How firms align
ING's recent forecast aligns with the current trading range, maintaining a target of 1.1700 for March 2026, consistent with their earlier revisions. On the other hand, JPMorgan is more bullish, projecting a 1.1800 target, while MUFG sees a more optimistic outlook at 1.2600, reflecting a divergence in sentiment among market players.
What the data shows
Revisions from firms such as Deutsche Bank and UOB show upward momentum in EUR forecasts, yet ING and others maintain a conservative approach in light of prevailing market conditions. Insights from our coverage highlight the consensus EUR/USD target at 1.1600 as traders remain cautious of the euro's external pressures, as detailed in /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01EUR/USD consolidated at 1.1446 as traders await FOMC direction.
- 02Range-bound trading suggests indecision before Fed meeting.
- 03Look for breaks above 1.1500 for bullish confirmation.
Market implications
Upcoming FOMC decisions on interest rates will be pivotal; watch if EUR/USD breaks support at 1.1400. Our consensus at 1.1700 indicates market expectations skewed slightly bullish as traders position themselves ahead of the meeting.
Risks to this view
A shift in the Fed's rate outlook could pressure the euro, particularly if inflation data influences expectations significantly. A break below 1.1400 could signal stronger dollar support, compelling traders to reassess their positions.
Sentiment by currency
USD~EUR~JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: +0.00
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
Euro consolidates below two-month high as US Dollar steadies
Euro: Overvaluation and energy risks weigh against US Dollar – MUFG
MUFG flags structural EUR overvaluation and energy headwinds as constraints on USD strength, suggesting mean-reversion risk for EUR/USD above fair value.