EUR/USD Price Forecast: Struggles at 1.1600, dives below 100-day SMA
The EUR/USD pair has recently struggled at the key psychological level of 1.1600, subsequently dropping below the critical 100-day SMA, indicating a potential shift towards bearish momentum. As the EUR trades at 1.1419, the recent loss of support raises concerns about the sustainability of current levels, reinforcing bearish sentiment in the market. This shift is particularly significant as it could signal a deeper downtrend, with pivotal support at 1.1550 coming into focus in the near term.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus target for EUR/USD currently stands at 1.1600 (median across several firms), signaling a potential outlook skewed towards the lower end of the spectrum. Notably, Goldman Sachs presents a more optimistic view with a target of 1.1800 for March 2026, while Danske Bank adopts a bearish stance with a target of 1.1866 for the same tenor.
How firms align
Firms like JPMorgan and ING align closely with the current sentiment, both predicting targets of 1.1800 for March 2026. In contrast, Stanchart and RBC forecast lower levels of 1.1400 and 1.1600, respectively, indicating a divided view among analysts. For more details, see our published views in /research/jpmorgan and /research/ing.
What the data shows
Recent revisions from firms indicate a general adjustment to bearish targets, with Deutsche Bank recently retracting its March 2026 target from 1.2500 to 1.1800, signaling less optimism for the Euro. For context, refer to our insights in /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path-2026-08-17.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01EUR/USD breaks below 100-day SMA, indicating a bearish shift.
- 02Watch for support at 1.1550 as the next critical level.
- 03Firm forecasts show potential divergence, ranging from 1.1200 to 1.2000.
- 04Recent target revisions reflect increasing caution among analysts.
Market implications
Traders should monitor the 1.1550 level closely, as a break below this support could confirm a steeper downward trajectory. Upcoming economic data releases may also influence Euro sentiment and the overall market positioning leading into the next ECB meeting.
Risks to this view
A reversal in the current bearish view could occur if upward momentum returns and the Euro regains footing above the 100-day SMA at 1.1600. Additionally, any unexpected shifts in ECB policy could quickly alter market dynamics.
Sentiment by currency
USD+EUR JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: +0.35
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
Euro returns below 1.1600 as US Dollar selling pressure eases
Euro: Bullish momentum eyes mid‑1.17s against US Dollar – Scotiabank
EUR/USD bullish momentum targeting 1.17 mid-levels suggests positioning for further dollar weakness if technical breaks hold.
EUR/USD Price Forecast: Conquers 1.1600 as bulls retain control above 100-SMA, 50% Fibo.
EUR/USD technical break above 1.1600 and 100-SMA signals continuation risk; monitor for resistance targets above current levels.