Euro: Range seen around mid‑1.15s against US Dollar – Scotiabank
Scotiabank has noted a potential trading range for the euro around the mid-1.15s against the US dollar. Currently, the EUR/USD pair is trading at 1.1419, underlining the market's cautious sentiment maintaining a neutral stance on both currencies. This observed range reflects broader uncertainty in the FX landscape, particularly as economic indicators continue to evolve. Investors may seek clarity in upcoming data to confirm these levels or anticipate deviations.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target currently stands at 1.1550 (median across 11 firms), with Morgan Stanley positioned at the high end (1.2000) and MUFG at the lower end (1.1800). Scotiabank's assessment aligns with the overall market sentiment, maintaining a focus on ranges amidst mixed signals from economic data.
How firms align
While Scotiabank highlights 1.15 as a key level, other firms have varied outlooks, with Commerzbank setting an ambitious target at 1.1900 for March 2026. In contrast, firms like Investec see a more conservative outlook, suggesting a target of 1.1455 for the same period. This clash reflects broader uncertainty, as captured in our previous reports (/research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path-2026-07-30).
What the data shows
Recent revisions from BofA indicate a stable target of 1.1700, while RBC also maintains a relatively bullish outlook at 1.1600. Our analysis shows that the EUR/USD is currently trading significantly below its consensus forecast, as evidenced in reports like /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path-2026-07-28.
How firms align with this view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01Current EUR/USD trading at 1.1419 highlights a divergence from consensus forecasts.
- 02Range trading around mid-1.15s could provide tactical opportunities.
- 03Upcoming data points may drive an edge toward either the bearish or bullish outlooks.
Market implications
Traders should watch for a clear breakout or breakdown around the 1.15 level, which may indicate further directional bias. Key economic releases later this week could impact positioning, especially given the current consensus target of 1.1550.
Risks to this view
A stronger-than-expected US economic report could strengthen the dollar further, challenging the mid-1.15 range and prompting a reassessment of existing targets. Additionally, shifts in ECB policy could also undermine the euro's stability at current levels.
Sentiment by currency
USD~EUR~JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: +0.00
Firms mentioned
Sources & References
How we cover this story
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