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EUR/USD spot of 1.1515 trades within a rounding error of the 30-firm full EUR/USD bank forecast table Dec-26 consensus of 1.1550, yet the surface calm conceals a 0.20-point spread between the most bullish and most bearish year-end calls on the panel.
Key Numbers
- Live spot (July 31, 2026): 1.1515
- Cross-firm consensus, Dec-26 (median, 30 firms): 1.1550
- Dispersion (max − min): 0.20
- Gap, spot vs consensus: −0.31%
- Most bullish: Deutsche Bank at 1.3000
- Most bearish: Citi at 1.1000
Where Does Each Desk Stand?
| Firm | Dec-2026 target | Stance |
|---|---|---|
| Citi | 1.1000 | bearish |
| HSBC | 1.1000 | bullish |
| Danske Bank | 1.1100 | neutral |
| Lloyds | 1.1200 | neutral |
| Scotiabank | 1.1200 | neutral |
| BofA | 1.1240 | bullish |
| Rabo | 1.1400 | neutral |
| SG | 1.1400 | bullish |
| TMGM | 1.1450 | neutral |
| UOB | 1.1450 | neutral |
| ING | 1.1500 | neutral |
| MUFG | 1.1800 | bullish |
| Nomura | 1.2000 | bullish |
| CIBC | 1.2200 | neutral |
Why Does Consensus Sit So Close to Spot?
The 30-firm median of 1.1550 is only 35 pips above current spot, which in isolation suggests the panel sees little directional conviction between now and year-end. That reading is accurate at the median level but misleading in aggregate. The distribution is bimodal: a cluster of desks — Rabo, Lloyds, Citi — sits below spot in the 1.10–1.14 range, anchored by the view that front-end US rate spreads have not compressed enough to justify further EUR gains. The offsetting cluster — Nomura at 1.2000, CIBC at 1.2200 — argues the ECB's terminal-rate path is being underpriced relative to the Fed's, and that the dollar's structural funding premium will erode through H2. The median of 1.1550 is therefore an averaging artefact, not a signal of genuine consensus conviction.
Three macro drivers dominate the published rationale across the panel. First, front-end rate spreads: the 2-year US–Germany spread remains the single most-cited input, with the bearish camp contending that any Fed pivot will be gradual and that the spread will stay wide enough to cap EUR/USD below 1.15 through year-end. Second, the ECB's forward guidance path: ING, which raised its target from 1.1300 to 1.1500, cites a shallower ECB cutting cycle as the primary revision driver — fewer cuts than the market had priced six months ago translates mechanically into a higher EUR floor. Third, terminal-rate dispersion: MUFG at 1.1800 and Nomura at 1.2000 both emphasise that the range of plausible Fed terminal rates — still wide given data dependency — creates an asymmetric upside scenario for EUR if US growth disappoints in Q3.
Which Desks Are the Outliers and What Would Bring Them In?
The 0.20-point dispersion — the widest in the panel's recent history for this pair — is driven almost entirely by the tails. Deutsche Bank's 1.3000 target, the highest across all 30 firms, is more than 15 figures above spot. At the other end, Citi and HSBC both sit at 1.1000, roughly 5 figures below current levels. The BofA revision is worth noting directionally: the desk lowered its target from 1.1500 to 1.1240, a move that adds modest downward pressure to the median even as the pair has held above 1.15.
For consensus to converge toward spot, two things would need to break. The upper-tail outliers — Deutsche Bank and CIBC — would need to see their ECB-outperformance thesis invalidated, most plausibly via a string of weak eurozone PMI or CPI prints that force the ECB back into a more aggressive easing posture, narrowing the rate-spread argument that underpins their calls. The lower-tail desks — Citi, Lloyds, Danske Bank — would need to revise higher, which would require either a faster-than-expected Fed pivot or evidence that the dollar's safe-haven premium has structurally diminished. Neither catalyst is imminent given the current data calendar, which leaves the 0.20-point dispersion likely to persist into Q3 reporting.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the current EUR/USD consensus target for December 2026?
The median Dec-26 target across 30 firms is 1.1550, based on the July 31, 2026 snapshot.
How far is spot from the consensus?
Spot at 1.1515 is 0.31% below the 30-firm median of 1.1550 — a gap of roughly 35 pips.
Which firm has the highest EUR/USD target?
Deutsche Bank holds the most bullish position on the panel at 1.3000 for Dec-26, well above the next-highest published targets.
How wide is the disagreement across banks?
Dispersion — measured as the difference between the highest and lowest Dec-26 targets across all 30 firms — stands at 0.20, reflecting a 1.1000 floor (Citi, HSBC) and a 1.3000 ceiling (Deutsche Bank).
→ See the full Nomura FX outlook for the complete rationale behind the 1.2000 Dec-26 target and the ECB terminal-rate argument driving it.
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