Weekly forex forecast: EUR/USD, XAU/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, Bitcoin and more [Video]
This week, the forex market exhibits a neutral sentiment across major pairs including EUR/USD and USD/JPY, highlighting an equilibrium phase as traders await key developments. With the recent stability in the USD, current trading around 1.1419 for EUR/USD is underpinned by diverging forecasts that suggest modest bullish potential for the Euro. As outlined in the weekly forecast, the consensus on the EUR/USD remains at an average of 1.1550 for December 2026, indicating that the market is pricing in a slow recovery rooted in favorable economic data from the Eurozone.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target is currently at 1.1550 (median across multiple firms), with Goldman’s projection at the higher end of the spectrum at 1.1200, and MUFG at the lower end expecting 1.1100. In contrast, the recent forecast by FXStreet seems to reflect a neutral positioning, falling within this consensus range without significantly altering the expectations.
How firms align
Firms such as Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank are bullish in their outlook, expecting EUR/USD targets of 1.2500 and 1.2200 respectively for December 2026, suggesting strong upside potential. Conversely, BofA's more conservative outlook defines a ceiling near 1.1240. These divergences highlight the varying expectations about future Euro strength against the USD, as illustrated in our /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path-2026-08-02 report.
What the data shows
A recent upward revision from ING to 1.1700 reinforces the bullish sentiment for March 2026, aligning closely with other firms like JPMorgan and MUFG. This suggests a growing confidence in the Eurozone’s recovery trajectory, although broad sentiments still hover around neutrality, pending economic indicators.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01EUR/USD at 1.1419 reflects market neutrality ahead of critical economic data.
- 02Focus on approaching Eurozone economic indicators as a key driver.
- 03Expect potential upward revisions in targets if bullish data trends continue.
- 04Firm forecasts suggest divergence, reinforcing market uncertainty.
Market implications
Traders should closely monitor levels around 1.1500, with the consensus of 1.1550 signaling a watch point for upward momentum. Key Eurozone economic data releases in the upcoming weeks may catalyze movement towards these forecasts.
Risks to this view
Should inflation concerns regarding the Eurozone intensify or the Fed signal a more aggressive rate path, this could shift expectations downward, invalidating the current bullish sentiment and potentially dragging EUR/USD below key support levels.
Sentiment by currency
USD~EUR~JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: +0.00
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
EUR/USD: Busy week ahead
Euro: Fed uncertainty limits gains against US Dollar – ING
Fed policy path uncertainty is reducing EUR/USD upside despite broader dollar weakness, keeping rate differential advantage limited.
Euro: Rebound eyes key resistance band against US Dollar – UOB
EUR/USD attempting to recover toward technical resistance; watch for breakout confirmation or reversal at zone.