Weekly technical outlook – USD/JPY, EUR/USD, GOLD [Video]
The recent technical outlook highlights key movements and trends in major currency pairs and commodities, with a neutral sentiment prevailing across USD, EUR, and JPY. This stability signals an ongoing tug-of-war among investors influenced by monetary policy signals. The lack of significant volatility may present a crucial opportunity for traders to recalibrate their positions ahead of impending central bank decisions that could impact these currencies. The focus is now on how these developments will affect the broader market landscape.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our current consensus EUR/USD target sits at 1.1550 (median across 11 firms), with Commerzbank at the upper bound (1.2200) and TMGM at the lower (1.1448). The outlook aligns with a neutral framework, as indicated by FXStreet's video on the market’s technicals this week.
How firms align
Commerzbank and Deutsche Bank both exhibit a bullish stance on the EUR/USD, projecting targets of 1.1900 and 1.1800 respectively for March 2026, suggesting confidence in the Euro's strength. In contrast, BofA and MUFG express more conservative predictions at 1.1700 and 1.1800 for the same tenor, indicating a potential divergence in expectations regarding Eurozone monetary policy.
What the data shows
Recent revisions from ING and BofA show slight adjustments upward, with both firms agreeing on a March 2026 target of 1.1700. This shift indicates an evolving sentiment towards a stronger Euro in the near term, as highlighted in our report /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path-2026-08-03.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01EUR/USD spot at 1.1419, amid a neutral market sentiment.
- 02Traders should watch for shifts in ECB policy that could influence EUR strength.
- 03Consensus points to a March 2026 target around 1.1550, signaling potential for upward moves.
- 04Key firm alignments suggest increasing confidence in Euro as the economic landscape evolves.
Market implications
Investors should monitor the EUR/USD level of 1.1550; a breach here could indicate a bullish trend, particularly in light of upcoming ECB announcements. Calendar events such as inflation data and monetary policy meetings will be pivotal for market direction.
Risks to this view
Should the ECB decide to take a more hawkish stance than expected or if widespread economic data undercuts current projections, the sentiment on the Euro could flip, causing significant volatility and a retracement towards lower target levels.
Sentiment by currency
USD~EUR~JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: +0.00
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
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