Weekly forex forecast: EUR/USD, XAU/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, Bitcoin and more [Video]
The latest forex forecast highlights significant movements in the Euro amid mixed market sentiment across major currency pairs. With the EUR/USD currently sitting at 1.1253, traders are now discerning potential direction as forecasts show a median target of 1.1700 for March 2026. The upcoming ECB monetary policy decision on October 29, 2026, adds urgency to correctly positioning in anticipation of shifts in sentiment that could impact the Euro significantly.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target stands at 1.1700 (median across 11 firms), with Commerzbank at the upper bound (1.1900) and ABN AMRO at the lower end (1.1284). The views postulated by various analysts suggest a predominance towards bullish sentiment, particularly following recent ECB discourse.
How firms align
Firms such as RBC and Nomura forecast an EUR/USD of 1.1700 and 1.1800 respectively by March 2026, aligning closely with our consensus. Conversely, BofA holds a more conservative view with a target of 1.1700, indicating the potential for volatility in trading strategies, especially leading up to the ECB decision. Refer to /reports/rbc and /reports/nomura for detailed insights.
What the data shows
Recent forecast revisions have seen adjustments, notably from MUFG and SocGen, suggesting moderate bullish adjustments to 1.1800 and 1.1700 respectively by March 2026. For further analysis, check our research on the ECB's rate path at /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path-2026-10-26.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01EUR/USD is currently at 1.1253, with a key upside resistance at 1.1700.
- 02Traders should focus on positioning ahead of the ECB rate decision on October 29.
- 03Recent revisions indicate a possible bullish shift among several analysts for the Euro.
- 04A push above 1.1700 could signal a firmer trend towards the upper targets.
Market implications
Next week’s ECB decision will be crucial; expect market positioning to become more pronounced as we approach key resistance at 1.1700. This will be a pivotal moment for the Euro, in line with consensus forecasts.
Risks to this view
Any deviation from expected ECB announcements or a more aggressive Fed stance could unwind bullish positioning in EUR/USD. A fall below 1.1200 might indicate a shift in sentiment.
Sentiment by currency
USD~EUR~JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: +0.00
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
Euro: Fed focus keeps pressure against US Dollar – Commerzbank
Market focus on imminent Fed decision is anchoring USD strength despite mixed Eurozone fundamentals; ECB data risks being sidelined by Fed action.
Euro: Lending slowdown threatens key support against US Dollar - ING
Eurozone lending tightening compounds macro headwinds for EUR/USD; technical support at YTD lows at risk if credit impulse deteriorates further.
Euro: Downtrend targets 1.1095 support against US Dollar – UOB
EUR/USD breakdown below 1.1135 accelerates downside momentum toward 1.1095, signaling technical conviction in USD strength.