Euro: Downtrend targets 1.1095 support against US Dollar – UOB
The EUR/USD exchange rate has faced increased downward pressure as it broke below the key 1.1135 level, reaching 1.1121. This development confirms a bearish sentiment as expectations of dollar strength build among traders. With the potential to test the support at 1.1095, the current dynamics signal a critical juncture for the euro. The swift decline observed underscores the significance of this technical breakdown in shaping near-term market direction.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target currently stands at 1.1500 (median across 13 firms), with Commerzbank targeting the upper range at 1.2200 and Investec at the lower end at 1.1455. UOB’s analysis aligns with the bearish outlook, indicating a potential further retracement towards 1.1095, which broadens the narrative of dollar strength.
How firms align
Specific firms such as Mizuho and HSBC have positioned targets of 1.1300 and 1.1700 for March 2026, respectively, which both suggest a more bullish outlook compared to UOB’s findings. However, firms like BNP Paribas and Rabobank support a moderate decline into the near future with targets around 1.1600.
What the data shows
Recent revisions from Standard Chartered and Danske Bank highlighted expectations for the EUR to trade lower, with targets of 1.1400 and 1.1866, respectively. Our research elaborates on these sentiment shifts in more detail, see insights in /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path-2026-10-26.
How firms align with this view
Key takeaways
- 01EUR/USD breakdown below 1.1135 indicates a potential test of 1.1095 support.
- 02Watch for a strong dollar narrative influencing short-term trade dynamics.
- 03Critical levels to monitor: 1.1095 as immediate support.
- 04Bullish targets still suggest a medium-term recovery for the euro.
Market implications
Upcoming economic releases, particularly the ECB rate decision on October 29, could provide additional volatility in the EUR/USD pairing. The consensus remains 1.1500, with potential shifts depending on the central bank's stance and guidance.
Risks to this view
A reversal could occur if the ECB signals a more hawkish policy stance than expected, particularly if the rate decision points towards a stronger euro outlook contrary to current analyses.
Sentiment by currency
USD+EUR JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: +0.65
Sources & References
How we cover this story
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